Israel's air raid: Syria better brace for more

Israel's Sunday air strike on a Palestinian training camp inside Syria has created international headlines of the "Ariel Sharon sends loud message" variety. Supposedly, the Israeli prime minister, by ordering an attack on Syrian territory for the first time in 30 years, sent the Bashar Assad regime a signal: Stop sponsoring terrorists.

But inside the Israeli military, many senior officers are scratching their heads over what they regard as an uncharacteristically gentle operation.

"After the suicide attack in Haifa, Sharon reached out to the air force and asked to see its Syrian target bank," says an Israeli intelligence analyst familiar with the internal discussion. "And then he chose the cheapest target. The planes didn't even break Syrian air space. They fired from Lebanon."

The target was Ein Saheb, an abandoned Palestinian training facility a few miles outside Damascus.

"Israeli intelligence has been monitoring that camp for years," says the analyst. "Everyone knew it was empty. Nineteen Israelis blown up in Haifa, and you hit an empty camp? Put a bomb through the window of the Islamic Jihad headquarters in downtown Damascus. Operationally, it wouldn't be a problem.

"You want to prevent civilian casualties, do it at 3 in the morning. The Islamic Jihad office is only a mile or two from Syrian Army headquarters. That's a message."

On Tuesday, Sharon responded to his hawkish critics by promising the attack in Syria was simply a first shot. He vowed that from now on, Israel would "strike its enemies in every place and in every way."

These tough words come with an unspoken qualifier: Israel is prepared to strike in every place and every way that the U.S. signs off on.

The day after the attack, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said that Israel hadn't informed the U.S. in advance. This may be true in some literal sense. But President Bush's own reaction - that Israel has the right to self-defense - makes it clear that he was neither shocked nor displeased.

Bush also cautioned against escalation - a warning that was misheard by some as directed at Israel. In fact, the President was talking to the Syrians. And it was directly related to the U.S. effort in Iraq.

Thanks to Osama Bin Laden, Saddam Hussein and Yasser Arafat, Bush is now a graduate of Middle East 101. He understands that a word from him (or a single bombing by Israel) won't make the Assad regime shut down Hezbollah or evict Islamic Jihad and Hamas. But he also knows Syria, and its strategic partner, Iran, are working to return Iraq to the Axis of Evil. Which means that Bush may be ready for a little regime change in the world's last Baathist paradise.

At the moment, Bush has a full plate. It's unlikely that he can send troops into Syria to depose Assad. But that's what friends are for. And Sharon is nothing if not a friend of the Bush administration.

Knocking off the Assad syndicate would be the crowning achievement of Sharon's long career. It would enable him to go after the Syrian-backed terrorists in the Bekaa Valley (unfinished business from the 1982 War in Lebanon), demoralize the Palestinian radicals and eliminate Syria as a strategic threat.

That may explain the gentle, tentative nature of Sharon's first strike. He has an ally in the White House, and he's willing to operate on Washington time. Over the years, Sharon has blown up a lot of targets, but rarely has he found one as pregnant with possibility as the empty terrorist camp of Ein Saheb.

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I think little bashir get's the idea. We start this way but when they next strike comes, putting one through a window in downtown Dasmascus can be expected. Are you ready to come out and fight like a man, little Bashir? Or do you think the Israelis will let you keep supporting/hiding behind heinious suicide attacks. It's a little different from the carrot approach the USA is using in Pakistan but the end result should be the same. Back off or die.

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