Anomalies... So many questions in the Joe Wilson matter

National Review Online ^ | 10-07-03 | Jed Babbin

[Renfield]

Intelligence analysts — like all detectives — find excitement in anomalies. An anomaly in conduct — action, reaction, and such — may be insignificant, but is often a clue to what is about to happen, or why something already has. In politics, as well as in intelligence, we ignore anomalies at our peril. Right now, the CIA is awash in them, and the president should be asking George Tenet some really tough questions about Joe Wilson

In the long buildup to the Iraq campaign, the Bush administration turned virtually all of our intelligence assets to gathering information about Saddam's WMD programs and connections to terrorism. We had historical data, mainly from the reports of UNMOVIC and Richard Butler, the former U.N. chief weapons inspector. From them, we knew that in 1998 — when the U.N. inspectors were first sold out by Kofi Annan and then kicked out by Saddam — Iraq possessed several types of chemical and biological weapons. We knew, also, from high-ranking defectors such as Dr. Khidir Hamza — who previously headed Saddam's nuclear-weapons program — that Saddam was still doing his best to get his nuke program back on track. I spoke to Dr. Hamza several times, and he gave me many details that seemed both credible and chilling.

Before the final case against Saddam could be presented to the U.N., there were loose ends to tie up. In February 2002 someone in the CIA sent former career diplomat Joseph Wilson to Niger to check out that information. By his own description of his "investigation," Wilson "spent...eight days drinking sweet mint tea and meeting with dozens of people." Current and former government officials and "people associated with the country's uranium business." Wilson found the mines regulated by the U.N. and run by an international consortium (which includes Saddam-friendly nations such as France and Germany) and concluded that it would be hard for the government to sell uranium without being detected. Wilson reported to the CIA — only verbally — that he didn't believe it would be easy for Saddam to get uranium from Niger.

On September 24, 2002, Tony Blair's government published a sanitized intelligence report entitled, "Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction." In part it said, "Iraq retained, and retains, many of its experienced nuclear scientists and technicians who are specialised in the production of fissile material and weapons design...there is intelligence that Iraq has sought the supply of significant quantities of uranium from Africa. Iraq has no active civil nuclear power programme or nuclear power plants and therefore has no legitimate reason to acquire uranium."

In January's State of the Union speech, the president said, "The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa." Soon after, there were leaks that the Brit report was false, perhaps even based on forged documents. The Brits stood by their report, but the president's words soon became a focus of antiwar pols and media, proof enough for them that the case against Iraq was a fraud.

In an eve of war interview — on March 13, 2003 — Wilson said the president hadn't made the case that Saddam was connected to terrorism and argued that multilateral cooperation in the U.N. was too important to risk by preemptive action. He made the Albright/Scowcroft argument saying, "...it's very clear that the way the administration is proceeding, and its willingness to go despite the United Nations, and the willingness to use the military option before a good part of the world believes that war is the only remaining option, puts at risk the rule of law and it also puts at risk the whole multi-lateral system which we've worked so hard since 1945 to build." And ever since Saddam's regime was toppled, Joe Wilson has been a media darling in dozens of interviews and one key op-ed to condemn the military action. In July, two senior administration officials told columnist Robert Novak that Wilson's wife was a CIA operative, and Novak published her name in a column about the political storm surrounding Wilson.

All was quiet until about three weeks ago, when the Washington press corps began trying to rouse itself into a feeding frenzy over the leak of the identity of Wilson's wife, Valerie Plame. Plame is a CIA employee who apparently had some connection to covert operations. Revealing covert operatives is a crime. The media (remembering the fun days staked out at the federal courthouse on the concrete expanse known then as "Monica Beach") can't understand why Karl Rove — publicly blamed for the leak by Wilson — hasn't been indicted yet. Trying to stir the press cauldron, the Dems are all over the airwaves demanding a "special counsel" to investigate the leak. Some Dems are even suggesting a revival of the "independent-counsel" law to which they bade farewell gladly in 1999 after Ken Starr taught them it could be applied to people who weren't Republicans.

The leaker may or may not be found. If he is discovered, he should be punished as the law provides. But the leak while titillating, is unimportant. While we occupy ourselves with the Plame name blame game, we are missing the most important elements of the Wilson affair: the anomalies.

Everyone who works for the CIA in everything having to do with intelligence or foreign governments is required to sign a secrecy agreement that provides the Agency the right to approve and censor what the employee may wish to say or write for public consumption. In Wilson's famous July 6, 2003 NYT op-ed, he said, "The mission I undertook was discreet but by no means secret. While the CIA paid my expenses, (my time was offered pro bono), I made it abundantly clear to everyone I met that I was acting on behalf of the United States government." It is unheard of for anyone to not be required to sign a secrecy agreement. So did Wilson get that article approved by the CIA?

I asked the CIA, and a very testy spokesperson refused to answer. I asked if Wilson ever signed a security agreement, and she sounded about to burst from stress, but she'd give no answer to that question either. Maybe she was just having a bad hair day. Or maybe the CIA is feeling some well-earned heat.

A senior intelligence-community source told me that no one as vocal as Wilson could possibly be bound to the usual security agreement. So Wilson wasn't required to sign one. Why? The fact that he was paid only his expenses is no explanation. That's Anomaly Number 1.

Why was Joe Wilson chosen for the Niger mission? A career foreign-service officer, he's no intelligence pro. He's not an expert on nuclear weapons, and he's sure no expert on covert purchase of WMD-related materials. He served as an "Africa expert" in the second Clinton administration, but hadn't been in Niger since he served as a flunky in our embassy there in the early '80s. He did serve — with courage — as acting ambassador in Baghdad in 1990. He had no unique or current knowledge of Niger, but he does have deeply felt political views which cannot have resulted from some recent epiphany.

Wilson worked for Al Gore as a congressional fellow in the mid-Eighties, has given money to John Kerry's presidential campaign, and believes his mission in life is to "destroy" both "neoconservatives and religious conservatives." Anyone political — which means everyone in the White House and the CIA hierarchy — must have understood the risk the president took in stating WMD as the casus belli against Saddam. Though the nuclear part of the WMD equation was never a principal part of the case for war, it was part of it. Anomaly Number 2: Why was Wilson — uncredentialed in the critical areas, and devoted to a political agenda antithetical to the president's policy — chosen for such an apparently controversial mission?

Wilson's "investigation" was patently inadequate. According to his op-ed, he made no effort to talk to the IAEA, Niger military or intelligence authorities. Dr. Hamza told me in considerable detail about a highly organized and well-financed black-market operation by Saddam's regime to buy every sort of nuclear weapons-related equipment and materials. It's not hard to suborn people with enough money, or to buy uranium and smuggle it out of places such as Niger. Over time, any amount could be smuggled out to Iraq. Anomaly Number 3: Why was Wilson's verbal report apparently taken at face value? No intelligence professional should have relied on it.

Although it's not an anomaly, no one seems to know who hired Joe Wilson for the Niger job. Reports and sources all say George Tenet didn't, and that someone well below him did. One report says that Plame recommended him. To whom, we don't know. Who chose Wilson, and why?

It's possible that Wilson's trip and report were a put-up job, intended to embarrass the president sooner or later. But that analysis overlooks Wilson's persona, his political loyalties, and his actions. I don't believe in conspiracies. But I don't believe in coincidences, either. If I were the president, I'd unambiguously support the leak investigation, and prosecute the leaker if he can be found. With equal urgency, I'd be working hard to find out why these anomalies exist. And wondering what other disagreeable surprises may be coming my way from the CIA in the next twelve months.

[Renfield]

I've been thinking this for some time. Someone at CIA needs to feel some heat.

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[r9etb]

If I were the president, I'd unambiguously support the leak investigation, and prosecute the leaker if he can be found. With equal urgency, I'd be working hard to find out why these anomalies exist. And wondering what other disagreeable surprises may be coming my way from the CIA in the next twelve months.

Indeed. Or perhaps Mr. Babin has bought into a canard.

Jed Babin hit a home run with his discussion of the "anomalies." And, contrary to his assertion that it's not an "anomaly," I think "not knowing" who hired Joe Wilson to perform this particular mission is probably the biggest anomaly of them all. It has a smell of plausible deniability to it -- why?

Speaking for myself, I don't think the CIA (even the PC among 'em) would be so stupid as to use Joe Wilson as their main source of intel. It's preposterous. However, if we postulate that Mr. Wilson was nothing more than an unwitting designated bozo, chosen to divert attention from the person who was really doing the investigation ...

Well, then all of those anomalies begin to add up. For example, no secrecy agreement means the CIA wanted him to blab, as they knew he would.

Why?

Well, perhaps the target isn't really Iraq alone, or even at all -- maybe it's Iran, which has admitted it has enriched uranium; or North Korea.

There's more to this....

[cookcounty]

" He's not an expert on nuclear weapons, and he's sure no expert on covert purchase of WMD-related materials. He served as an "Africa expert" in the second Clinton administration, but hadn't been in Niger since he served as a flunky in our embassy there in the early '80s. He did serve — with courage — as acting ambassador in Baghdad in 1990. He had no unique or current knowledge of Niger, but he does have deeply felt political views which cannot have resulted from some recent epiphany. "

And the US press, with it's usual sloppiness, allowed us to think Joe Wilson is a former Ambassador to Niger. Slowly, very slowly, the truth is oozing out on this slimey affair.

[jawz]

Imus was talking to Joe Wilson this AM and Wilson would not give a straight answer as to whether or not Wilson's wife was an undercover operative - told Imus he would have to ask the CIA that. ??????

Wilson also said he was unaware of any specific threats made against his wife at this point (as a result of her identity being disclosed).

[NotQuiteCricket]

"A senior intelligence-community source told me that no one as vocal as Wilson could possibly be bound to the usual security agreement"

*snort* Who signed off on his expense report? This is government we are talking about, they don't just hand out money with out someone signing off on it - get the expense report and you have the person who authorized his trip. He had to fill out a request, get someone to sign it, and then turn it in to get his $$. Freedom of information act? It is not like he was on a secret "mission" because he didn't sign a security agreement. There you go.

[pointsal]

ping and double ping

[Cobra Scott]

Don't you need a special investigative committee for that? After all, like you said, this is government we are talking about, LOL!

[Ragtime Cowgirl]

Great article. Jed Babbin is a brave man.

Wilson's "investigation" was patently inadequate. According to his op-ed, he made no effort to talk to the IAEA, Niger military or intelligence authorities. Dr. Hamza told me in considerable detail about a highly organized and well-financed black-market operation by Saddam's regime to buy every sort of nuclear weapons-related equipment and materials. It's not hard to suborn people with enough money, or to buy uranium and smuggle it out of places such as Niger. Over time, any amount could be smuggled out to Iraq.

Please read. The investigation into this leak could answer some important questions and expose some very real domestic (and foreign) enemies of the President.

 Thanks, Tonkin!

[bushfamfan]

You hear all sorts of things about what Wilson's job was at the CIA. I'll venture to say it appears from the evasiveness that she wasn't involved in the most important work for the CIA. And Wilson himself is now crying that their lives may be in danger, but he had just said previously they aren't in danger. The CIA should have to answer to why Wilson was sent to Niger to begin with. He is not exactly apolitical and is to be questioned in his report. It's so much easier for the administration to do that than going to these supposed tactics to 'out' his wife for political reasons. And Wilson is crossing the line attacking and indicting Karl Rove. Wilson is a born liar.

[NotQuiteCricket]

I guess I'm naive, but it doesn't seem like it would be that difficult to get to the bottom of the Wilson issue.

marron's questions:
1. First, since when did the CIA appoint itself to engaging publicly in policy debates?
2. Why did they have to send a non-employee to investigate something that should have been a high priority?
3. What happened to their African assets? Have they none?
4.Why did that non-employee sent to investigate, not investigate?
5. And finally, why are they lending their aid and support to this charade?

NotQuiteCricket's questions:
6. Who signed off in the CIA on sending Wilson?
7. Who authorized his reimbursement for expenses?
8. To whom did he report on his return?
9. What is his wife's job title?

Are questions raised on this thread:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/992471/posts

Like you say, it is the government - and they probably have 4 shipping containers full of paper to sift through, but I thought they knew how to file? Aren't computers involved? Let me get at the database, and I'll get it figured out in a week.

[Alamo-Girl]

Indeed. I suspect that the Democrats may deeply regret having made such a stink!

[OldFriend]

Just called Congressman King's office and suggested he get a transcript of that conversation Wilson had with Imus this morning. It was full of contradictions to say the least.

It's pretty sad when Imus gives the hardest questions asked of this traitor.

[prairiebreeze]

thanks RC. Saw this info about King on another thread. About time!

Prairie

[js1138]

However, if we postulate that Mr. Wilson was nothing more than an unwitting designated bozo, chosen to divert attention from the person who was really doing the investigation ...

[Grampa Dave]

Here is the guy who arranged this trip without Tenet's or GW's knowledge, Alan Foley who just retired/resigned from the CIA.

If Wilson did not sign the normal secrecy agreements that are required before and after such a trip, Foley is the perp who allowed this to happen.

Here is what the mediots have hidden from America. The CIA boss of Plame has just recently retired/resigned.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/995426/posts?q=1&&page=44

AUGUST 29, 2003 : (ALAN FOLEY, HEAD OF THE WEAPONS INTELLIGENCE, NONPROLIFERATION, AND ARMS CONTROL CENTER ANNOUNCES HIS PLANS TO LEAVE THE CIA) A top CIA expert on weapons of mass destruction, who became embroiled in controversy over whether the White House stretched evidence about Iraq's programs, said he planned to leave the agency in October. Alan Foley, who heads the Weapons Intelligence, Nonproliferation, and Arms Control Center, told colleagues in a note dated Aug. 29 that he had been "thinking about life after the agency for some time" and decided to leave after 26 years to enter the private sector. ...While I can't prevent the inevitable speculation that will be generated by the timing of my decision, I want you to know that this is something that I decided entirely on my own," Foley said in the note, obtained by Reuters on Wednesday. "I can't deny that the pressures of the past few months have not weighed heavily in my mind, but there are many other aspects to my decision, not the least of which is that I'm intrigued by the prospect of trying my hand at a second career in the private sector," he said. - "Head of CIA Weapons Analysis Program Leaving," Reuters , 09-10-03
* Remember Joseph Wilson......this is his wife Valerie Plame's boss.2 posted on 09/10/2003 5:39 PM PDT by Dog
* Isn't it fascinating that we would have a new poster today talking about intelligence blunders and such? On the same day that Mr. Foley's resignation is made known. Quite a coincidence, isn't it?10 posted on 09/10/2003 6:21 PM PDT by Miss Marple
* Thanks for the ping, I believe Foley want's out before any investigation gets underway about Joseph Wilson & his wife's involvement in this whole Niger smear attempt 14 posted on 09/10/2003 6:35 PM PDT by MJY1288

---

Here is a possible scenario of this mess. Foley, Plame and Wilson with the help of the Clintoons and ?, cooked up this non event trip to Niger for Wilson.

Tenet was not aware of it as he had more serious things to keep track of. Tenet saw the report when Wilson got back and basically said it had little value.

The Rats kept this report on their back burner until they released their Yellowcake Scam I in July. That failed thanks to the internet with the exact 16 words that GW used in his SOTU address.

So they put it back on the back burner and started Yellowcake II which is the non exposure of Plame, a very good friend of $inator Hildebea$t. They blogged this non exposure story until they needed it.

They needed it to distract from Kay's report and the fact that the muslim traitors in Gitmo had connections to American Muslims who had donated money to the Hildebea$t which helped her to become $inator Hildebea$t.

So they and their bed butt buddies, the mediots and videoits went whacko for the first time in their lives that there had been exposure of a really secret CIA agent.

Now we know that she was not an agent, and it was no secret around the DC area that she worked for the CIA.

I think that Alan Foley, the newly retiring/resigning boss of Plame is a very guilt person in this whole mess. He and Wilson planned Wilson's trip as a trip wire to harm GW at some later time.

Many of us feel that the two CIA agents in the BBC lies about Yellowcake were Wilson and Plame.


Posted on 10/07/2003 8:20 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (Fight Liberalism 24/7/365 for only 17 cents / day. Donate $5 monthly to Free Republic.)

[The Electrician]

We still don't know (well, we do, but nobody will admit it in public) who hired Craig Livingstone. No doubt it was the same shadowy person who hired Joe Wilson.

[mewzilla]

Wilson said he meat with 6-8 people, some CIA, some not? Who were they? If we find that out, it should tell us a lot...

[mewzilla]

meat=met

[BOBTHENAILER]

So they put it back on the back burner and started Yellowcake II which is the non exposure of Plame, a very good friend of $inator Hildebea$t. They blogged this non exposure story until they needed it.

Clear your schedule for the next few months and write the BOOK about this NOW. I think you're onto something here.