Posted on 10/06/2003 4:34:34 PM PDT by Coleus
As independent scientists concerned with atmospheric and climate problems, we -- along with many of our fellow citizens - are apprehensive about emission targets and timetables adopted at the Climate Conference held in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997. This gathering of politicians from some 160 signatory nations aims to impose on citizens of the industrialized nations, -- but not on others -- a system of global environmental regulations that include quotas and punitive taxes on energy fuels to force substantial cuts in energy use within 10 years, with further cuts to follow. Stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide -- the announced goal of the Climate Treaty -- would require that fuel use be cut by as much as 60 to 80 percent -- worldwide!
Energy is essential for economic growth. In a world in which poverty is the greatest social pollutant, any restriction on energy use that inhibits economic growth should be viewed with caution. We understand the motivation to eliminate what are perceived to be the driving forces behind a potential climate change; but we believe the Kyoto Protocol -- to curtail carbon dioxide emissions from only part of the world community -- is dangerously simplistic, quite ineffective, and economically destructive to jobs and standards-of-living.
More to the point, we consider the scientific basis of the 1992 Global Climate Treaty to be flawed and its goal to be unrealistic. The policies to implement the Treaty are, as of now, based solely on unproven scientific theories, imperfect computer models -- and the unsupported assumption that catastrophic global warming follows from an increase in greenhouse gases, requiring immediate action. We do not agree. We believe that the dire predictions of a future warming have not been validated by the historic climate record, which appears to be dominated by natural fluctuations, showing both warming and cooling. These predictions are based on nothing more than theoretical models and cannot be relied on to construct far-reaching policies.
As the debate unfolds, it has become increasingly clear that - contrary to the conventional wisdom -- there does not exist today a general scientific consensus about the importance of greenhouse warming from rising levels of carbon dioxide. In fact, most climate specialists now agree that actual observations from both weather satellites and balloon-borne radiosondes show no current warming whatsoever--in direct contradiction to computer model results.
Historically, climate has always been a factor in human affairs - with warmer periods, such as the medieval "climate optimum," playing an important role in economic expansion and in the welfare of nations that depend primarily on agriculture. Colder periods have caused crop failures, and led to famines, disease, and other documented human misery. We must, therefore, remain sensitive to any and all human activities that could affect future climate.
However, based on all the evidence available to us, we cannot subscribe to the politically inspired world view that envisages climate catastrophes and calls for hasty actions. For this reason, we consider the drastic emission control policies deriving from the Kyoto conference -- lacking credible support from the underlying science -- to be ill-advised and premature.
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This statement is based on the International Symposium on the Greenhouse Controversy, held in Leipzig, Germany on Nov. 9-10, 1995, and in Bonn, Germany on Nov. 10-11, 1997. For further information, contact the Europaeische Akademie fuer Umweltfragen or The Science and Environmental Policy Project in Arlington, Virginia singer@sepp.org
If you are in a climate science related field and would like to add your name to the list of signatories, print out and mail or fax the following form.
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It is in the breaking news sidebar! |
Kyoto, ill-advised and premature.
Works for me.
Ther is the real issue. Communists went into environmentalism, as Rush said long ago. They want to stop the engine of Capitalism.
More to the point, we consider the scientific basis of the 1992 Global Climate Treaty to be flawed and its goal to be unrealistic. The policies to implement the Treaty are, as of now, based solely on unproven scientific theories, imperfect computer models -- and the unsupported assumption that catastrophic global warming follows from an increase in greenhouse gases, requiring immediate action. We do not agree. We believe that the dire predictions of a future warming have not been validated by the historic climate record, which appears to be dominated by natural fluctuations, showing both warming and cooling. These predictions are based on nothing more than theoretical models and cannot be relied on to construct far-reaching policies.
More precisely to the point, the surface temperature of the Earth is independant of the concentration of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere. The temperature of earth's atmosphere is more closely coupled to Water Vapor concentrations in the atmosphere and Solar irradiation of the earth's surface than to CO2 by a very large factor.
Global Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 over Geologic Time Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 mya -- 270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period ). Temperature after C.R. Scotese
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The current average surface temperature of the earth is around 13.8 degrees C. Bottom longterm average temp on the chart is around 12 degrees C.
Bouncing of the bottom 1/2 million years looks like:
Climate temperature deviations for the last 420 kyr, from Vostok ice
The little red dots on the right are the last 10kyrs starting with the development of argriculture:
Basically intercepting more cometary debri & dust in the upper atmosphere increases the noctilucent cloud layer & reflecting more sunlight back into space shoving us into periodic deep iceages.
If you go to the paper hyperlinked below you will find a solid discussion about how that happens, though to see the graphics you may need to rightclick->show picture as the website does not always feed the graphics properly:
Origin of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle
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