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>> "Why do you say this is a false assumption. With the very first CNN polls, "conservatives" jumped on Arnold's bandwagon, saying he was the only viable candidate." <<

First of all, my comment was directed at this point in time (when Keyes published his comments), not at the start of the recall process. At this point in time, it is a false assumption.

It seems to me that some conservatives supported Arnold from the start, some got aboard later, and some have just recently supported him. I don't think that they all moved together like a block of mind-numbed robots.

I believe that the main common thinking of the conservatives that support Arnold is a simple calculation that he can win and that either Davis or Busted would further destroy California, and the state just can not survive more of them, and we must ENSURE that they don't get a chance to do more damage.

The political calculations included:
Arnold had access to large amounts of money (the mother's milk of politics); McC had very limited resources.

Arnold had access to all kinds of free media availability; McC had to fight for every bit of exposure he could get.

Arnold could draw from the Demonrat population with his "moderate" positions (unfortunately the Demonrats hold a strong numerical advantage in CA, and no one can win without pulling some votes from them); McC's very strong unbending Conservative positions would not pull well with them.

Arnold as a semi-outsider was immune to the typical Davis attack against Republicans; McC was very much a Republican and in Davis's crosshairs. (Davis, as unpopular as he was with the general population was still able to rout Simon.)

The question is whether to pull a few temporary votes from the narrow slice of Demonrats who are now worried about taxes or to pull large numbers of socially conservative minority voters and particularly Latinos who do not want their grandchildren aborted or their children in lavender relationships. The white shoe Republican Muffiesa and Skippers are fading fast and there are not that many Demonratic regulars so worried about their trust funds as to be reliable Republicans.

Wha you guys consistently ignore is that Arnie is the disastrous Wilson redux or he would not have had Wilson as campaign manager. The California GOP simly refuses to recognize that Wilson's elitist liberalism on taxes, social issues and overt racism against Latinos (which has cost the GOP in California MANY votes) is the root of GOP failure in Caligornia. Now, while Arnold rakes in out of state special interest dough (Arnie for sale to the same interests as Doofus) and Vegas casino money, the Wilsonites want to spend their time whacking McClintock for being supported by California's Indian casinos. If you ran an Indian casino, wouldn't you try to stop Arnie when he is in bed with your Vegas competitors?

That celebrity liberal Arnie has access to liberal money via Buffett and Wilson and other media advantages does no change the essential fact that to support im is to surrender on the installment plan.