[ambrose]

No one seems to really know how this is playing.

I remember when the Bush DUI thing hit. There was a definite sense that it was bad - and it was. It cut Bush's lead down to the point that we had the Florida fiasco.

[goldstategop]

Do you have that sense here? I think people are just disgusted with this sleaze and the Democrats if anything are tossing more chum into the water. Its frenzy feeding time!

[Timesink]

One possibility I haven't seen mentioned on FR is the possibility of the rats playing phone bank games on Tuesday with nonexistent "exit polls." For example, calling and otherwise spreading rumors in hardcore rat areas saying "Arnold and the recall are doing far worse than expected! Get out there and vote and we can win this thing!" While, at the same time, spreading rumors in GOP/Arnold areas that "exit polls" are showing the recall and Arnold getting insurmountably high numbers (70% or so) in an attempt to lull GOP voters into thinking they're not needed and staying home.

Not that I think this sort of penny-ante crap could possibly have enough effect to matter as things stand now, but if a truly damaging puke bomb is dropped in the next few days, it could make a meaningful difference.

[AmericaUnited]

No one seems to really know how this is playing.

Not so. Antidotal evidence and one tracking poll show it actually has had a slight positive effect.

[Tempest]

I had thought that the polls had showed GWB barely trailing right before the election in 2004???

[Tempest]

I did a little search and it appears that Bush only lead Gore by 1 point in 2000.

"With 14 days remaining in the campaign, an ABCNEWS tracking poll shows Bush at 47 percent and Gore at 46, a statistical tie. "

Source: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/DailyNews/Bush_Gore_trail001024.html

And this was the lead he had prior to the 11th hour attack on GWB. Since the story broke on November 1 or 2nd from all the reports I could gather.