| Again, let’s run the numbers. Clear, straightforward math. Currently the polls show: Schwarzenegger, 40 percent. Bustamante, 25 percent. McClintock, 18 percent. Now follow me. Forty plus 18 equals 58. Combined, the Republican candidates beat Bustamante by well over two to one. Suppose McClintock comes within one point of overtaking Bustamante but can’t quite pull over the top. We can assume that any McClintock gains are likely to come from Schwarzenegger voters, not Bustamante voters. So that would put McClintock at 24 percent, Bustamante at 25 percent, and Schwarzenegger at 34 percent, still the victor by a whopping nine point margin. If McClintock gains eight points, enough to put him ahead of Bustamante by a point, that still leaves Schwarzenegger with 32 percent of the vote and an impressive seven point margin of victory. Think what a well-deserved embarrassment that would be for the Democrats to have not one but two Republican candidates get more votes than the lieutenant governor. You see, unless something happens to give Bustamante a tremendous boost, McClintock can’t possibly be a spoiler.
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