[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

Go visit the Iowa Electronic Markets website and read their papers documenting that their election markets are virtually always more accurate than survey polls. In a survey poll one commits nothing. In the IEM, one votes with his pocketbook. The pocketbook trumps nothing.

[fqued]

one votes with his pocketbook. The pocketbook trumps nothing.

I think you meant that "the pocketbook trumps everything."
even in their gambling, they still have Arnold's chances of being the next governor at about 75%.