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October, 2001: start Oct, 2002: around 1000 Oct, 2003: circa 5500

Um, these are people who have "pledged" to move to NH. As I understand it, they aren't actually there yet. This is all hypothetical and, as I explained in an earlier post, my skepticism basically comes entirely from the fact that I have doubts as to whether/how many of these people will follow through on the pledge in the first place. We'll see, though. Look, I have nothing against the FSP, I have no axe to grind, in fact it seems like an entirely reasonable and utterly fair endeavor (not to mention, much better than bloodshed!) for a group of people to pursue if they seek significant political change in their lives.

But we'll see.

Now run those numbers forward two more years hence to Oct 2005, when the number of pledged Porcupines is predicted to hit 20k and the 5-year timeframe of the migration is to begin. And figure the continued numbers if the growth curve does NOT fall off or cease....

I'm familiar with how exponential growth works. I'm also familiar with the potential pitfalls on relying too much on it in your reasoning. I believe it was Malthus who proved that, due to exponential growth, we're all dead (or never were born) due to mass starvation. There's also the matter of how you are estimating your "predicted growth rate". You could be off in your predictions by a "small" amount in the growth rate, and lead to an error in the tens of thousands in your prediction of the population totals of free-staters....

All I'm saying is, I'm skeptical, and we'll see. I'm kinda rooting for it to be a significant thing, actually, in kinda the same way that I'm rooting for the Cubbies and Red Sox in the playoffs... but we'll see.

I'm familiar with how exponential growth works. I'm also familiar with the potential pitfalls on relying too much on it in your reasoning. I believe it was Malthus who proved that, due to exponential growth, we're all dead (or never were born) due to mass starvation. There's also the matter of how you are estimating your "predicted growth rate". You could be off in your predictions by a "small" amount in the growth rate, and lead to an error in the tens of thousands in your prediction of the population totals of free-staters....

Just so. And pyramid schemes are great, until they oversaturate and then collapse very suddenly; just the reason to be watching for any indications of that sort of change in the FSP numbers. But I also remember an election in the 1980s in which given a choice between Tweedledum and TweedleDumber, one voter in five picked the little Texan with the funny ears, instead. I suspect even more would do so now, whether he had a snowball's chance in He!! of winning or not.

The growth curve numbers can be seen charted as follows, and if you'd like the raw numbers, they're easily obtainable and I'd be glads to provide you with them.

But take a look yourself, and tell me where, assuming growth at the rate of the past 24 months continues, YOU would project the total membership numbers will be in 2008 and 2010. And right now, we've got 150 Porcupines resident in NH. When that number doubles, I'll be paying attention to where it leads as well.