Replies

You are forgetting that except for the Gallup poll released on Sunday, previous polls did not showed McClintock winning over Bustamante if Schwarzenegger dropped out.

Now that Schwarzenegger has possibly changed the political landscape and has continued to be the frontrunner on the Republican side, he cannot drop out unless he's a fool

For example, the poll was released September 9, 2003. The poll was conducted by Baselice & Associates, Inc., September 1-4, 2003 among 1,005 likely voters. According to the poll commissioned by California Chamber of Commerce:
If both Ueberroth and McClintock drop out, Schwarzenegger will win over Bustamante.
If both Schwarzenegger and McClintock drop out, Ueberroth will tie with Bustamante.
If both Schwarzenegger and Ueberroth drop out, McClintock will lose to Bustamante.

California Chamber of Commerce
For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall
relection for Governor was
just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices) 

49% Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican
42% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
*   Other names (vol)
3%  Would not vote (vol)
6%   Undecided / refused (vol)
__________________________________________________________________________

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall 
election for Governor was
just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices)

43% Peter Ueberroth, Republican
43% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
*   Other names (vol)
4%  Would not vote (vol)
9%  Undecided / refused (vol)
_________________________________________________________________________

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall 
election for Governor was
just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices)
 
41% Tom McClintock, Republican
47% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
1%  Other names (vol)
3%  Would not vote (vol)
8%  Undecided / refused (vol)