Recall, Schwarzenegger ahead in new LA Times poll [Schwarzenegger 40, Bustamante 32]

SF Chronicle ^ | Sep 30, 2003

[jmc813]

The poll you cited was conducted long before the debate. McClintock trounced Cruz in the debate. I stand by my assertion.

[Central Scrutiniser]

Cool!

As for that huge McClintock 'surge', he went from 18 percent to 18 percent...

[jmc813]

Allow me to correct myself. Tom would have dropped out of the race for Simon had he been trailing him at this point. Simon is conservative. Arnold is not.

[jraven]

Even a columnist on newsmax (go to that site) notes that McClintock has not been able to broaden his voting base. If Arnold was not in the race some independents and Democrats who will vote YES on recall and YES on Arnold would have considered holding their noses and voting for Bustamante. I have voted (YES for recall and YES for Arnold) absentee and have been amazed at the number of people who will vote for him BECAUSE he is NOT a politician and BECAUSE -- rpt BECAUSE -- he is surrounded by the Wilson team. Some may not have liked Wilson but in fact Wilson left office with his reputation relatively intact...and as someone who attracted votes beyond a fixed conservative base. There is nothing wrong with being a champion of the conservative base but a truly smart politico will try to expand his base. McClintock would a)never have been able to expand it because he really doesn't want to b)would probably have gotten in office and been recalled himself since he would run into a political buzzsaw with the Democratic Assembly.
So...it's a very noble pipe dream...but a pipe dream...to think...ahh...if Arnold only didn't get in McClintock would cuise to victory. He never could have made it unless he sought to expand his base of supporters. There is not one shred of evidence he has done that in this race.

[Tamzee]

Looks like things are firming up for Schwarzenegger.....

Yes, indeed! Thanks for the ping :-)

[george wythe]

Polls indicate that had Arnold not entered, McClintock would have handily won over Cruz and California would have ended up with a conservative governor.

Besides the CNN/Gallup poll released last Sunday, which other polls do you have in mind?

Or did you mean to say "A poll indicate. . ."?

[Sabertooth]

Maybe if both our candidates pull out the maximum support of their supporters, we can come close to 60% for the two Republicans. Talk about a repudiation of Davis.

A livable outcome for everyone.

[Central Scrutiniser]

D'oh!

I meant that the Tomikazies surged from 18 percent to 15 percent.

Tom, follow Arianna, get out of the race before the embarassment dooms you further...

[Rabid Dog]

Here's a quote regarding Arnold from the original LA Times article I think you'll appreciate!

"I look at him as maybe like a Kennedy, where he really wants to do something good, because he's not in it for the money," said Jim Rego, 58, a Castro Valley independent who owns a gas station near Oakland.

[Nonstatist]

don't think so... Davis has always been toast

Davis would have gone after the relatively unknown McCLintock, and bloodied him as a right wing fascist. All those center-left mush heads that are voting for Shwarznegger would NOT have voted for McClintock, IMO. Davis still has, what, 100 million in his coffers?... California is so far left nowadays..

[Central Scrutiniser]

Polls indicate that had Arnold not entered, McClintock would have handily won over Cruz and California would have ended up with a conservative governor

Baloney, had Arnold not entered, McClintock would be behind Issa, Riordan and Simon. But keep dreaming....

[Sabertooth]

What's really amazing is that Arnold has gained so much without Tom losing much ground at all. You would have thought the one would come at the expense of the other, but it hasn't happened that way.

So much for the vote-splitting complaints.

[george wythe]

Only five days left to election day.

Tuesday evening is going to be a long night

[RGSpincich]

Polls indicate that had Arnold not entered, McClintock would have handily won over Cruz and California would have ended up with a conservative governor. Please see my tagline.

Not a chance. Davis and Bustamante would have exploited your boys' ties to Christian Reonstructionism and the Christian far right and scared off every moderate voter. Only the staunchest of right wingers would have voted with McClintock. McClintock and Stoos have floated in under the radar thus far

[onyx]

Thank you for posting to me. Your comments are cogent and thoughtful.

You write most persuasively! I agree with your analysis 100 percent!

[Sabertooth]

In other words, California's liberal newspapers are clearly outed as being out of touch with mainstream Californian voters.

We'll see if the California GOP leadership understands the significance, or continues in hand-wringing mode.

[deport]

CA NexGen BIGpoll: Davis-Out; Arnold-In
Tuesday September 30, 3:40 pm ET- Over 7000 Speak Out in CA's Largest Scientific Poll -

WASHINGTON, Sept. 30 /PRNewswire/ -- With one week until election day in America's largest state, the California NexGen BIGpoll of 7,097 registered Golden State voters finds that just over 61% will vote to remove Governor Gray Davis from office in the Recall Election scheduled for October 7, 2003. And according to results, Arnold Schwarzenegger will top the field by almost a sizable double-digit margin over his nearest rival, Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante in the Replacement Election to fill the office of Governor.

[snip]
In the Replacement Election to succeed Davis, actor Arnold Schwarzenegger has pulled ahead to a dramatic lead over the large field of candidates with 39.7% of voters indicating support for his candidacy. Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante follows with 23.6%, State Senator Tom McClintock has 12.6%, Green Party candidate Peter Camejo pulls 3.6%, Independent Arianna Huffington has 2.8% and all other candidates record 4.2%. 13.4% of California voters remain undecided with less than one week to go.

[FairOpinion]

"The California GOP is now Arnold's party. The sweet little power and financial motherlode the unappeasables enjoyed and maintained through their perennial LOSING is hitherto TERMINATED.

Californians got Gray Davis, Barbara Boxer, Dianne Feinstein, Bill Lockyear and Socialist Democrat rule because the California GOP was run by hacks who deemed any Republican capable of statewide election automatically unfit and not Conservative enough to support. "

====

This post by ArneFufkin is excellent and right on the money.

Thanks for reposting it, I didn't see the original.

[Tempest]

"What's really amazing is that Arnold has gained so much without Tom losing much ground at all. You would have thought the one would come at the expense of the other, but it hasn't happened that way."

Well that's kind of a mixed blessing. If the conservatives sticking with McClintock stay on this path of destruction than Arnold may very well feel justified in ignoring them after election day. Or he may feel the need to work harder for their votes next time. It could go either way.