What you say is true. It is a hypothetical sistuation. But the dynamics of a Bustamante meltdown (if that is in the process) may significantly change the nature of the conservative vote.
The conservative vote (regardless of party affiliation) will be very strong in this recall election. It may account for up to 50% of the total vote. (Earlier I had predicted over 40% based on a close race in the yes/no portion of the recall - but Davis seems to be imploding too, depressing the liberal vote.) The conservative vote had been breaking for Schwarzenegger by about 6:3 over McClintock. Yet, at the same time many of these conservatives stated that McClintock would be the better Governor. Their rationale for going with Schwarzenegger was that he could beat Bustamante. As Bustamante fades, that Schwarzenegger "soft" support might also begin to fade back to the McClintock column. These are voters who are highly motivated to come to the polls. I am doubtful that enough conservatives will swing back to McClintock, but a McClintock rise in the polls is a natural result of the Davis/Bustamante fold-o.
50%??? The burgeoning vote that will put Schwarzenegger over the top consists of disaffected young educated techies in Silicon Valley, suburban Riordan/Wilson Republicans, Independents who know the Dems are selling them out to illegals, Unions and environutzoids but are turned off by the Abortion-obsessed chanters and gun loving militiamen they associate with the GOP ... but mostly his surge will come from young apolitical College folk, Warehouse, cashier and waitstaff and cosmotologist and customer service grunts and gruntettes, military folk and legally resident immigrants or native born work a day folk from Mexico and China who Arnold touches as an immigrant who made it. They're not making the poll numbers, they'll come from nowhere because Arnold has rendered this election a statement making event. These same people WILL NOT vote for McClintock in a Senate race against Boxer. They like Arnold, he's honest and he's going to serve their interest even if they're not sure what their interest is.
Unyielding social conservatives are going to sit in their 10% phone booth and compliment themselves and each other for achieving nothing in a principled manner.