[Ronin]

Barring a smoking gun with Arnold's prints on it, there is no way that McClintok is going to pull enough votes to win. You can sit down and do the math anyway you want to, but unless you are using "Million Man Math" it just doesn't compute.

Unless, of course, there is a campaign-busting scandal out there with Arnold's name on it, and Tom is just waiting for Davis to spring it.

If there is, and he knows what it is, he also knows that Davis will use it. That's a pretty safe bet. Davis wins elections by going negative and showing no mercy. It's the way he has always (as near as I can tell) won.

Bustamante is already fading. He was never much of an attraction anyhow. So, forget him. Now, what's left?

Here's my theory in a nutshell.

McClintok is staying in because he expects Arnold to be terminated politically by Davis, but at the same time he expects Davis to suffer politically for the use of his negative ads.

This will leave him as the only undamaged candidate on the field to whom all the Republicans will flock to on election day.

Too wild? Hmmmm... maybe I need another layer of tinfoil...

[ambrose]

Good theory. Not tinfoil at all.

McClintock would be foolish to drop out at this point in the game... He needs to let this thing play itself out. If there have been no bombshells by Saturday, then there won't be any - they'll want to have the bombshell circulate in time for the weekend news cycle. That's how they stole the senate seat away from Herschensohn.

The only thing we know is that Grayout has a history of vicious campaigning, and he has been promising a "surprise" for the final week...