Arnold gets my vote because he will be a huge benefit to Bush in 2004, assuming they campaign together (which I do). Arnold will draw a lot of his independent supporters to Bush, and will be able to raise a lot of money through huge fundraisers. Arnold's fame will be huge for people to look at the Republican party in California who otherwise might not.
If a primary were involved, I'd support McClintock. But there's not. Republicans need a victory in California badly, even in a liberal one; winning is all that should count now with the recent disasters for state-wide campaigns.
I think that Arnold will win in part due to the same thing that helped Jesse Venture win in Minnesota - the number of independents, unregistered, and first-time voters who'll vote for Arnold because of his movie career, and who are not counted anywhere by any pollsters. Ventura was in third place by pollsters going into the election because of this.
Good post, I think you are right. Arnold may not be Mr. Right Wing but he is Mr. Right Now. California needs to back away from the edge of the abyss. It is not going to became a conservatve state over night because of this election but it could begin to turn in the right direction.