We win because Schwarzenegger did not win.
If Arnold loses, that does mean that Bustamante wins.
Maybe. It would mean either McClintock wins (best case scenario) or Bustamante won.
I Put it this way concerning the four scenarios:
Best: Davis Recalled, McClintock Governor
Next: Davis Recalled, Bustamante Governor
Next: Davis Recalled, Schwarzenegger Governor
Worst: Davis Not Recalled