Tale of Two Surveys: the Rise in Self-Employment

You've heard it again and again: the economy has shed millions of jobs over the last couple of years. Yet, did you know there's actually two employment surveys released each month in the same report? And, did you know the one survey shows jobs losses while the other survey shows jobs gains?

Today's JEC report, "A Tale of Two Employment Surveys," begins to explain the mystery of the jobs numbers.

Two surveys from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tell different stories about employment during the current economic recovery - a loss of 1.1 million payroll survey jobs since November 2001, and a gain of 1.4 million household survey workers. The jobs gap of 2.5 million between the two surveys is unprecedented. Some have suggested that a statistical revision to the household data in January 2003 is responsible for most of the reported jobs gap. Calculations by JEC indicate, however, that the revision accounts for relatively little of the gap. Controlling for the revision, the household survey still shows an increase of 1.1 million jobs since the end of the recession, and the jobs gap is still 2.2 million.

The household survey indicates that self-employment has grown by 626,000 jobs since the recession end. These workers are not counted by the payroll survey, so they account for a portion of the jobs gap, but two-thirds of the gap remains largely unexplained.

I've used this example before. One of my friends, laid off from SAIC about 7-8 years ago, is "unemployed." He has never looked for a job. He got a very nice severance and his shares of the company not only provided him with a nice upper-middle-class living, but pay his daughter's admission to the expensive university at which I teach.

There are hard-luck stories out there, but we need to realize that some people who are unemployed are so by choice---not that they wouldn't like their OLD job back, but that a new one is not lucrative enough to lure them back.

No, but masseurs, physical therapists, pharmacy owners, health-care consultants, nail people (of whom there are thousands, making a damn fine living) and beauticians ("hair stylists") all do. I can drive down one of my main streets and see no fewer than four major self-owned nail salons, five or six hair salons, one dog groomer, one gun shop, three florists, dozens of financial planners and tax specialists, several psychologists, about a half-dozen doctors or dentists, a guy who owns a "Dragon-ball Z" and baseball card store (and makes a damn fine living), several paint stores, a new Mexican restaurant started by legal immigrants who have parlayed ONE strip mall restaurant into FOUR larger restaurants in less than 10 years (!). And on and on, but you really don't want to hear these stories.

As someone who just got pushed out of a well paying job due to an on the job injury I am looking for work. Can you give me any suggestions?

About the only suggestion I have is: look for an underserved, nonglamourous market doing something you can do with your injury, that meets a real need and can be profitable. This should be something that does not require you to learn many, if any, new skills. Or at least, if new skills are required, you should be able to learn them on the job.

Then realize that your primary job is to sell, sell, sell, market, market, market. Get business. In the early days, and probably in the early months, you will spend 75% of your time trying to get people to buy your services. Find a way to go face-to-face with them, preferably without getting "in their face" too much.

The more personal contacts you have, the better.

And don't expect much income at first. Be prepared to work 60 hours for $100. Watch the bottom line like a hawk watching for a rabbit to pop out of a hole. Know what your survival-level budget is, and do everything you can to bring it in, this week.

In addition to the excellent suggestions made by Luke, I would advise you to first step back and make a realistic assessment of your personal financial situation. Don’t even think about self-employment at this time if you don’t have enough savings on hand to cover at least six months of living expenses assuming zero income. Add more months to this minimum if you don’t already have a viable plan for a career as a self-employed person. If your financial situation doesn’t meet this minimum, put all your time and effort instead into a serious search for a job offered by an employer that will provide enough income to survive on (any job you can physically handle). Once you are solvent for the long term, then you may begin planning for the day and career that will free you from depending on others for income.

The thing about entrepreneurs is that they are self-starters. The more we learn about education, the more we find it is overblown and overvalued. Absolutely, skills are essential. But the greatest entrepreneurs of all time were illiterate, usually discriminated against, and so on.

The Jews, for example, have a history of being the most discriminated-against group on earth, yet prosper everywhere they go. In Malaysia, the Chinese are specifically discriminated against by law, yet they have higher incomes and wealth than Malays. In Chile, Lebanese control the grocery businesses, and on and on. Whites need to pay attention to what they've been saying to blacks for 100 years---that discrimination, while real, is in the long run not as important as motivation, ideas, and faith in yourself.

As to education, we are seeing now that we have developed an OVER educated society, at least for the jobs that are available and need doing. I teach college, and would say at least half of the kids have no business being in college. Most of them, like one of my former students, would be better served to start a business, THEN come back to school when they have a firm idea as to what they need to make their business better.

Most of them, like one of my former students, would be better served to start a business, THEN come back to school when they have a firm idea as to what they need to make their business better.The other created his own dream of being a missionary in Russia, got the necessary credentials, and is very successfully living the dream, a modern day TripleX (from the movie TripleX, about a gen X style James Bond type spy, for those who don't get the cultural allusion).

These are dynamicly successful people who put in the time and effort to get what they wanted.

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