[NYC Republican]

Nah, but I do know that Bush has to win by a significant margin to carry states like NY and Cali, something he is unlikely to do.

I was joking about the construction thing... I assume you're in finance or something related, based in your stats (actuary?). Later

[HitmanLV]

Haha! Nah, I'm a lawyer by training, though have a strong background in probablity & stats, as well as computers and databases and such.

The model is inexact, and nobody can predict the future, I admit, but it was just intended to show the actual impact of the famous 'county-by-county' map we are all familiar with. In other words, for Bush to be in a 48%-48% tie nationally, and still win most states (31-19 I think), and overwhelmingly win most counties, he had to have lost the states and counties he lost very big. That's a tough mountain to climb, I say, and some states (NY especially) are just out of reach.

But I'm a realistic pessimist! Haha! I have no hopes of a 40+ state sweep, though 35 states is doable, and those 35 states should get us about 325-350 EVs. "Good enough for me!"