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I agree. I did a quick mathematical model, based on the 2000 election results, the national figures, and the California state vote figures.

Based on that (and it's all speculation but it is just to show what a tough road Cali is in the EC), Bush would have to increase his national popular vote total 13% over what he got in 2000 (winning about 54% of the national popular vote, instead of the 48% that he won in 2000), and the Dem would have to drop that same 13% of the national popular vote (winning only 42% of the national popular vote, instead of the 48% or so Gore won) in order to raise the national tide to 54%-42%, which would be enough to raise the tide in California enough and win, by even then by under 1%.

In this case, all else being equal (which it isn't), Bush would win California in a sqeaker by under 1% (49%-48%), and then by only about 62,000 votes.

Bush lost California in 2000 by 1,293,774, losing the popular vote in Cali 56%-43%.

Cali was never in the cards - for now, Cali is lost. But making Cali more of a race (even 52-47 within the state) forces the Dems to use resources to keep Cali. We get the benefit in other states nationwide.

This +13% would naturally raise the tide elsewhere in the nation and would probably win Bush other states he lost in 2000, particularly Illinois (still needs a 13% increase to 54%-42% nationally to eek out a 29,493 win) & Michigan (which would need only a 6% increase to a 51%-45% national spread to eek out a win by only 30,134 votes).

The 13% increase nationally (which isn't going to happen anyway) would still lose NY! Based on this pattern, Bush has to increase his national numbers by 27% (and the Dem would have to decrease by the same 27%) to an impossible national margin of 62%-35% in order to eek out a 46%-46% popular vote win in NY State, and carry the state by only 53,666 votes!

The good news: Bush I think will win all the states he won in 2000, PLUS New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and maybe Oregon (a +1% difference in the national vote in favor of Bush would mean a 50-49 Bush win in OR, winning by 7500 votes or so), and maybe Penn (a 5% difference in favor of Bush, a national spread of 50-46, should carry Penn by about 33,00 votes), and a +6% would even carry Michigan, as I said.

A +6% difference, a 51%-45% national spread for Bush is realistic and possible, but far from sure, and while it sounds like a blowout, but I am afraid based on 2000 patterns, it would only add up to about 350-375 electoral votes - enough to win but a disapointment for those looking for Reagan style blowout. Too many states are out of reach, and no way Bush is going to pull ahead nationally by much more than 51-45, sorry.

Of course, this is only meant to show how difficult it will be to carry some states. It's all speculation. But keep this phenomena in mind when you see national figures: a 51-45 spread nationally in favor of Dubya doesn't bring home Cali, NY, Illinois, and much of the Northeast.