Many Republicans think Arnold will be just another liberal Governor.
I watched the debate last night and thought Tom McClintock did a good job. I think he'd be a good governor. However, he is a career politician, and he did not come across like a leader. In military parlance, he reminded me of a great executive officer or chief of staff, but I just don't seem him as a senior commander. Tom just doesn't offer anything to get the people who don't already agree with him to vote for him. He's a true blue conservative, and that scares a lot of people in California.
Like it or not, most Californians are relatively socially liberal, even if they are fiscally conservative. Or they are like my cousin, who worked for JFK in 1960 and has voted Democrat ever since. Well, this time, she's voting to Recall Davis. I was shocked. She doesn't like Cruz, either. Wants immigration stopped and the mess in Sacramento cleaned up. She'll vote for Arnie, because (1) she thinks he might be effective and (2) he doesn't scare her on social issues. I asked her about Tom, and she said "He's just another politician saying the same things he's said for 20 years. He's a crazy right-winger."
Sports fans, Tom won't ever get her vote, or the votes of the millions of people like her in California. And without a lot of support from Democrats and independents, no Republican can win statewide in California. Arnold, for all his faults, has a shot at getting a lot of those votes. And that's why he can win, where Tom can't. Tom is the flip side of Cruz BustaMEChA: has the core support of the conservative/liberal activists, but doesn't appeal beyond his core constituency.
Tom is beginning to sound like it's more about him than it is about the state. Too much, me, me. My positions, I've said this for years. etc.
If he doesn't bow to reality soon, he'll soon be Don McQuixote, enabler of Cruz.