U.S. economic activity cools in August-Chicago Fed

Biz.Yahoo/Reuters ^ | September 25, 2003

[Starwind]

U.S. economic activity cools in August-Chicago Fed
Thursday September 25, 10:05 am ET

 NEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - A gauge of national economic
performance slipped in August to reflect below-trend growth,
mostly due to the worsening labor market and a pull-back in
industrial output, the Federal Reserve Bank (News - Websites) of Chicago said on
Thursday.
 The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index fell to -0.28
from an upwardly revised 0.05 in July. Any negative reading
suggests economic growth running below trend, which most
economists peg around 3.5 percent for gross domestic product.
 The slip in the index comes even as many economists are
expecting growth during the July-to-September quarter to roar
ahead at 5.5 percent to 6 percent.
 Poor labor market data was almost entirely responsible for
the index's deterioration. Non-farm payrolls fell 93,000 in
August while jobless claims rose steadily during the month.
 A meager increase in industrial output in August compared
with the prior month also took a toll, though that was blamed
on the massive blackout that swept across the country.
Following are details of the index:
 Monthly index:
 Aug 03  Jul 03  Jun 03  May 03  Aug 02
 -0.28   0.05   -0.24   -0.34   -0.62
 Three-month moving average:
 Aug 03  Jul 03  Jun 03  May 03  Aug 02
 -0.16   -0.18   -0.57   -0.70   -0.23
 NOTES:
 Zero values in the index indicate the national economy
expanding at historical trends, while negative values indicate
below-trend growth and positive values signal growth above
trend, the Chicago Fed said.
 The 85 economic indicators that comprise the Chicago Fed's
index are drawn from five categories: production and income;
employment, unemployment and hours; personal consumption,
housing starts and sales; manufacturing and trade sales; and
inventories and orders.

[Starwind]

The full Chicago FRB report (.pdf) is at Chicago Fed National Activity Index ? August 2003

[Starwind]

Fyi...

[Lael]

U.S. economic activity cools in August-Chicago Fed

Hope the Politicos can find a way to outsource the 2004 Vote to India and China...

Next year is a downer, economically.