*Poll says McClintock could win 1-0n-1 matchup*

National Review (The Corner) ^ | 9/22/03 | Peter Robinson

[TheBigB]

Brother Hugh, some news.

John Eastman, a professor of law at Chapman University and a frequent guest on your radio program, has just brought to my attention a poll that will interest you. Commissioned by the Lincoln Club of Orange County, the poll includes the following results:

If Arnold Schwarzenegger found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Tom McClintock dropped out of the race--then Schwarzenegger would win, 44 to 37 percent.

But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

From the beginning, Hugh, you have made a single argument against McClintock, insisting that he cannot win.

But he can.

[Spiff]

42 vs. 40 is a statistical deadheat. Its same as tossing a coin. The lead by Arnold is real and would take something really significant to wipe it out.

Yes, but this puts to a lie the oft repeated mantra that McClintock can't win.

[FairOpinion]

"How do you bump something to Front Page News?"

Adding is easy -- removing it is impossible for us.

At the bottom of a posted article:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California; Click to Add Topic

KEYWORDS: CALIFORNIA; CRUZ; MCCLINTOCK; RECALL; SCHWARZENEGGER; Click to Add Keyword

If you "click to add topic" , as it says, you can add "frontpage" and it will appear on the Frontpage section also.

Same with the "click to add keyword".

[savedbygrace]

You miss the point, possibly intentionally.

This poll indicates that McClintock COULD win a head-to-head race. That's a significant development, IF (IF IF IF IF) the poll is as accurate as this article claims.

IF (IF IF IF IF) this is the case, then it COULD bring in more support for McClintock, who is unarguably more conservative than the actor.

IF (IF IF IF IF) you misinterpret what I've written here, shame on you.

[Sabertooth]

Please try your reading comprehension test again:

See my post 15 -- I was the one who MISTAKENTLY bumped this to FrontPage News and after going to the link and realizing what this was, I decided I was mistaken in doing so

Oh, I saw #15.

After your frontpage second-thoughts, you were questioning the source of the information and fishing for a thread nuking from the Admin Moderator. "it's only a POST/letter to the editor," and "Could you please adjust the location of this, or even pull the thread."

I comprehended you fully, and responded to those particular disinterested-in-honest-debate elements of your post.

[jmc813]

If you "click to add topic" , as it says, you can add "frontpage" and it will appear on the Frontpage section also.

Cool! I never realized that before.

[NYC Republican]

Yes, but this puts to a lie the oft repeated mantra that McClintock can't win.

He CAN'T win, as long as Arnold's in there. Arnold's not going anywhere.

[SteveH]

That's a really low blow. Please stick to the issues, and not engage in Clinton-esque personal attacks.

It's a parody of the numerous McClintock detractors on FR and the general low level of discourse regarding McClintock and Arnold these days. I was not serious. Please note the "smiley face".

[NYC Republican]

It's a parody of the numerous McClintock detractors on FR and the general low level of discourse regarding McClintock and Arnold these days. I was not serious. Please note the "smiley face".

Sorry. Misunderstood your intent.

[JCEccles]

These "poll" figures are a pipedream and totally irrelevant

If Republican voters see evidence that a McClintock, a true conservative, can beat Bustamante, that they don't have to settle for a candidate who is far to the left of them, might they not be expected to support McClintock? If so, why would that evidence not be relevant?

If these poll figures are a pipe dream, why are not the polls you are relying on to justify your claim that only Scwarzenegger can be elected, pipe dreams? What evidence are you using to draw your distinction?

[pogo101]

I agree that the poll suggests McClintock could win in such a contest. Unfortunately, barring images of Arnold with dead rams, Arnold isn't dropping out.

Still, even though it isn't directly material to What IS, it's a nice refutation of those who said "Tom can't win (or, couldn't have won)," as you say.

[Sabertooth]

The best way to do it would be the following, for future reference

California Crunch (Poll Says McClintock Could Win 1 on 1 Matchup)

A fair point. Parenthetical additions to headlines are the preferred practice.

However, while it would be nice to have the actual poll, instead of a report of it, I think we can at least agree that TheBigB's headline addition has accurately reflected the biggest surprise in the National Review comment by Peter Robinson, which made the article newsworthy in the first place. Fair enough?

[FairOpinion]

Sometimes people forget to add something -- like "ca", when it's a CA topic.

I don't normally bump things up to "Frontpage" the Admin Moderators don't like everything to be frontpage, but I figured that this would have qualified, if there had been a real source backing it up.

Actually my actions shows how unbiased I really am -- then the hordes decended, for my trying to undo what I have done.

[mtbopfuyn]

Yeah, but they didn't count on the alien support group for Arnold. The headline on the Globe or some such grocery line mag this weeks shows a grey shaking hands with Arnold. Hey, greys can vote under Davis. Arnold for a peaceful universe!

[DoctorZIn]

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[VU4G10]

"could"

[Sabertooth]

Still, even though it isn't directly material to What IS, it's a nice refutation of those who said "Tom can't win (or, couldn't have won)," as you say.

It's most definitely material, because the refutation (assuming the poll was scientific, and accurately reported) nullifies the preferred argument of Schwarzenegger's supporters, which has been "Arnold can win. McClintock can't."

If refuted, that argument is no longer part of "What IS."

[JCEccles]

The poll question's based on an unrealistic assumption

Will you at least agree that the results of the poll tend to prove that McClintock can beat Bustamante in a one-on-one race?

Suppose Schwarzenegger fell over dead from a heart attack (steroid damage) tomorrow. Would you still be arguing that the poll is irrelevant?

But Schwarzenegger doesn't have to fall over dead from a heart attack. All that has to happen is for Republicans to shift their support to a conservative (McClintock) who can beat Bustamante rather than settle for a liberal (Schwarzenegger) who doesn't reflect their values. Then the pressure would be on Schwarzenegger to drop out.

Why wouldn't that be a better result? Are you opposed to it?

[My2Cents]

If Arnold Schwarzenegger found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Tom McClintock dropped out of the race--then Schwarzenegger would win, 44 to 37 percent.

Wasn't this the spread in the poll released yesterday? Even with McClintock in the race, Arnold beats Cruz by 7% (or was it 8%?).

[HamiltonJay]

Look, I know its hard to admit defeat, its never easy. But there comes a time when you just have to, no matter how emotionally invested, admit the truth of the situation.

McClintock isn't going to win this election, he's not going to even come close. Hes sitting at about 1/2 of the lead republican and well below the Democrat... the election is 13 days away.

Its not a matter of what I want, or you want or anyone may or may not want. The world doesn't revolve around what somoeone wants, it revolves around what IS.

And the fact is the only role McClintock has to play by staying in this race is a PEROT spoiler.. pure and simple. He cannot, is not and will not win.

Now any poll showing him leading head to head is #1 conjecture and #2 not reality... This isn't a 1 on 1 race... never has been.

McClintock's not winning this race, and any claim that he could beat Bustamante 1 on 1 is just pure speculation. Sort of like well Superman could Beat up Green Lantern... nuh uh... uh huh.. nuh uh.. uh huh...

On policy frankly I probably agree more with McClintock than Ahnold... however I've lived in Cali, and I am telling you right now, even in its worst economic and political crisis in 50 years, McClintock will not carry that state. Just because you look at some big red map of Cali with smaller sections of blue doesn't mean someone who would be considered conservative in the midwest is going to win Cali. In Cali they won't win.. there isn't a republican in state wide office, and hasn't been for ages for a reason!

This all or nothing nonsense by about 15% or so of the republican electorate of california is exactly why you can't win there and keep losing. This recall, just like the election of 2002 is the Republican's to lose... you can either wake up to the cold hard facts of this situation, or keep your denial and say hello to governor Bustamante...

[pogo101]

I'm not going to get into a sub-argument about what is directly material and what isn't to the campaign. Suffice it to say (again) that Arnold ISN'T dropping out, barring the publication of bestial necrophilic images or the like.

That renders the poll strictly subjunctive, hypothetical. "If Arnold were not a choice" isn't a condition that's currently met or likely TO BE met. Unless it IS met, I don't consider it material except to refute the litany-chanters of "Tom can't win (or, could never have won anyway)."