[tallhappy]

The latest Field poll showed that Arnold could win if McClintock bowed out but the reverse is not true.

What latest Field poll? You mean PPIC Poll?

You miss the point that Schwarzenegger must not bow out for the silent switch to work.

You miss as well that McClintock bowing out will not help Schwarzenegger. In terms of numbers, if McClintock's numbers or a fraction of them were switched to Schwarzenegger, he would win.

But after all this time have you not realized you are dealing with intrasigent people. If they were going to vote for Schwarzenegger they already would be.

McClintock bowing out would actually hurt Schwarzenegger's chances. In a two person race he becomes oerceived as more right wing and loses some support from liberal/left voters among the independents you mention. He gains almost zero of McClintock's vote.

But non-independent Schwarzenegger voters would vote for McClintock ie 70% of his supporters. There is not the same ideological animosity and in fact many Schwarzenegger voters say they like McClintock better but have accepted the premise that he can't win and therefore are planning to vote for Scwarzenegger.

[jagrmeister]

I've been in eletoral politics a while and this "silent switch" assumption is quite possibly the worst analysis I've seen. There is no precedent for such a dynamic. And no, I was referring to the Field poll which asked follow-up questions asking people their preference without Arnold or without McClintock. Arnold can win without McClintock, whereas McClintock will lose, even if Arnold drops out of the race. It's time for McClintock supporters to do the right thing, the practical thing. Let's take back California one position at a time.

--

Arnold is no liberal