Posted on 09/18/2003 7:33:34 AM PDT by Starwind
DJ DJ-BTM Business Barometer -2: Smoothed Index Down 0.1%
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NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The Dow Jones-Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi weekly business barometer decreased by 0.3% in the week ended Sept. 6, continuing a saw-tooth pattern seen over the last few weeks.
A week earlier, the barometer posted a 0.9% increase, which followed a 0.6% decrease the week before that.
A statistically smoothed version of the index declined by 0.1% in the latest week and is up only 0.1 percentage point from its level in the week ended June 28.
"It is not clear whether the early September weakness was associated with some seasonal adjustment problem, due to the Labor Day shortened workweek, or if it reflected - and may augur - more fundamental weakness," said Mike Niemira, senior economist at BTM, who compiles the index.
The DJ-BTM barometer is a weighted 10-component index designed as a coincident measure of overall economic activity.
Of the 10 components, four increased and six decreased in the latest week. On an unweighted but seasonally adjusted basis, the Mortgage Bankers Association's home purchase index rose by 3.2%, marking the largest increase for the second straight week, while truck production declined by 8.0%, marking the largest decrease.
The DJ-BTM barometer includes four components from the goods-producing sectors - steel, lumber, auto and truck production - as well as electricity output, a measure of utility production, and coal production, a proxy for the mining industry. The financial sector is represented by the Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase index, while the services sector is covered by measures of inflation-adjusted chain-store sales and by box-office receipts, as well as by freight-car loadings, which are also an early indicator of goods orders.
A separate DJ-BTM index of production trends, which is drawn from the six production-related components and is statistically indexed to the Federal Reserve's industrial production index, fell by 1.4% in the latest week after holding steady in the prior week.
For the full report, please see: http:www.btmna.com/reports/research/barometer/usbarometer.html
-By John McAuley, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4425; john.mcauley@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
09-18-03 1000ET- - 10 00 AM EDT 09-18-03
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