...Isabel weakens to a tropical storm... At 9 PM...0100z...the Hurricane Warning has been replaced by a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect north of Surf City North Carolina to Moriches Inlet New York...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...Chesapeake Bay...the tidal Potomac...and Delaware Bay. At 9 PM EDT...0100z...the center of Tropical Storm Isabel was located inland near latitude 37.0 north... longitude 77.9 west... or about 30 miles northwest of Emporia Virginia. Isabel is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph. A turn to the north-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to move across eastern Virginia toward western Pennsylvania over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph...with higher gusts. Although Isabel will continue to weaken as it moves over land...unusually strong winds...with gusts to hurricane force...may be experienced well inland to the elevated terrain of northern Virginia and Maryland...as well as on high-rise buildings and other structures. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 345 miles. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb...28.58 inches. Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...may still occur along the Atlantic coast within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels is still possible in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers. Storm surge flooding along the Outer Banks will continue to gradually subside tonight. Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel. There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern Virginia...and southeastern Maryland through tonight. Repeating the 9 PM EDT position...37.0 N... 77.9 W. Movement toward...northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 968 mb. For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office...and statements from local emergency management officials. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT. Forecaster Avila |