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Barring some unforseen stimulus, I would state that unemployment will get worse and the credit bubble may pop.

Unemployment was 6.1% when you posted this (see #502-504). It's 5.7% (and falling) now. There have been 759,000 jobs added to the economy since then. Average hourly earnings in August '03 were $15.41. For March '04, they were $15.54.

So...

"Unemployment was 6.1% when you posted this (see #502-504). It's 5.7% (and falling) now. There have been 759,000 jobs added to the economy since then. Average hourly earnings in August '03 were $15.41. For March '04, they were $15.54."

Guys I can save all the socialists the trouble of posting a rebuttal to your above points there Dawg...

I got 'em all down pat now and if any of you need a refresher just surf over to DU or the Kerry 04 website they will have the list posted there...

So here goes:

< leftist rant mode >

Unemployment at 5.7% is a lie, the real unemployment number is in the 20% range, everyone is out of work because Bush stole the election, and no one can afford to give me a pony!

The 759,000 jobs added to the economy are all McJobs because Bush stole the election and Gore Didn't get elected and buy me a pony!

So what is the Average hourly earnings in August '03 were $15.41 and for March '04, they were $15.54, The evil Bush Cabal Invaded Iraq and raised the gas prices and sent all our jobs overseas so he could become King of the World and not give me a pony!!!

ad infinitum ad nauseum

< /leftist rant mode >

Geez, that was like taking candy from a baby, TD. Wish I had gotten in on that bet. :-)

I saw yesterday that the initial estimates for job growth in April (based on mid months surveys) was 175K. Even if they're 50K too high, that's still an impressive growth trend.

I've seen a significant pullback in offshoring and a large upswing in defense hiring in my area. Our company is also beginning to see an increase in capital expenditures both private and federal.

Nothing makes me happier than seeing job growth. I did not anticipate a pullback in offshoring but since this is an election year it's not too surprising. Low interest rates are definitely keeping the "credit bubble" in check and I hope it stays that way. I would love to see any stats that indicate people are beginning to save more, otherwise we are just delaying the "pop" for the next economic downturn.

I'm still concerned that many VC's are almost demanding that startups use a high percentage of offshore labor as part of their initial business plan. Exposing future competition to our entrepreneurial processes and latest technologies is going to create very unwanted competition in the future. This will lead to losses in market share for emerging technologies.

All in all I'm happy to "lose" this type of bet and I hope things continue. I would say that one more quarter of positive growth and I'll switch from cautious to bullish on the future economy.