Posted on 09/16/2003 7:49:30 AM PDT by dirtboy
Good. Go west young woman.
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 16, 2003
a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft reported that the central pressure continues to slowly rise and the eye has become poorly defined on a radar image transmitted from the aircraft. Peak flight-level winds were 105 kt in the northwest quadrant from 7000 ft...which would support surface winds of about 90 kt. This makes Isabel a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Water vapor imagery continues to show dry air in the western part of the circulation... and the convection has weakened markedly over past few hours.
Recent images...however...show an improvement in the outflow pattern northwest of the center. The initial motion is 330/7. There has been no significant change to the track forecast. Isabel is on the west side of a deep-layer ridge extending from the Canadian Maritimes south-southeastward to east of the hurricane. A broad area of westerly flow is over the central and eastern United States...with a shortwave trough lifting northeastward through the Great Lakes. Large-scale models indicate that the ridge should build westward as the shortwave lifts out... which should cause Isabel to move in a general north- northwesterly direction through 72 hr.
With the deterioration of the central core...additional weakening seems likely over the next 24 hours. Most of the model guidance continues to show increasing anticyclonic outflow over Isabel as a result of a digging and negatively-tilted upper-level trough that should interact with the hurricane in the 24 hours prior to landfall. For this reason...the official forecast allows for some restrengthening. It is possible...however...that the circulation could become so disrupted over the next day or so that Isabel would be unable to respond to the more favorable upper-level forcing. Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 16/1500z 27.4n 71.2w 90 kt
12hr VT 17/0000z 28.4n 71.8w 85 kt
24hr VT 17/1200z 29.9n 72.6w 85 kt
36hr VT 18/0000z 31.7n 73.9w 90 kt
48hr VT 18/1200z 33.8n 75.6w 95 kt
72hr VT 19/1200z 39.0n 79.0w 45 kt...inland
96hr VT 20/1200z 47.0n 78.5w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 21/1200z 54.0n 71.0w 30 kt...extratropical
Yes! Yes! Die Bitch, Die! Turn back around and go bother France!
Nah, it should run north, hit Martha's Vineyard, knock out Chapaquiddick bridge and make life safer for all of us.
I just spewed Mountain Dew onto the keyboard.
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 16, 2003
...Isabel continues north-northwestward... a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Little River Inlet South Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach Maryland... and the tidal Potomac. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Hurricane warnings may be required later today or tonight.
A tropical storm watch is in effect south of Little River Inlet to South Santee River South Carolina. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch may be required north of the Hurricane Watch area later today or tonight.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 27.5 north... longitude 71.3 west or about 595 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts...or category two on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. While some further weakening is possible today...conditions could become favorable for restrengthening prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles...mainly to the northeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb...28.32 inches.
Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are already being experienced along portions of the U.S. Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. These conditions will also continue over portions of the the Bahamas for the next few days.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...27.5 N... 71.3 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.
For storm-related information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office...and statements from local emergency management officials.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
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