He'd have to have a run of bad luck...Skinner or Bodine style bad luck. :^)
More like Marlin's season-ending crash last year, or maybe Elliot's 6-race collapse of '92 or Bobby Allison's record 341-point drop of '81 (which took 11 races to disappear). 404 points over 9 races is an average of just under 45 points a race (just less than the 46-point difference between 1st and 10th or 2nd and 13th). Even if Matt has 9 43rds, Jr. would need to average 28th to pass him. More amazing, Dale would have to do more than just show up even if Kenseth gets hurt before Dover (an average finish of 39th would do it, but 40th wouldn't).
Indeed, if a single driver dominates all 9 races (wins from the pole and leads the most laps), the last driver that could do it assuming Kenseth collapses into 43rd every race is Johnny Benson. If Kenseth doesn't race again this year, he's still guaranteed to finish ahead of Kenny Wallace.
Someone's been burnin' up the calculator. :^) Yeah, unless Kenseth gets injured, you can stick a fork in this season. That's OK, it's good to have a midwesterner in there. Kenseth certainly deserves a champoinship. Not so sure about Roush. Dale Jr can vie for runner-up. Harvick's so hot that might not be so easy.