[arete]

"So what gives? In my view, the most likely outcome, particularly in the early part of the period under review, is simply that the US economy will not recover properly but rather will enter a long, depressing era of 'growth recession' with increasing unemployment and the ever present risk - with corporate and personal debt so high - of financial implosion."

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." [Human Action, p. 572.]

Here is a link to the discussion thread on Nelson Hultberg's article titled Apocalypse This Way Comes. Very interesting and worth the time it takes to read it.

Richard W.

[arete]

Pushing on a string ping to the (un)usual suspects.

FYI

Comments and opinions welcome.

Richard W.

[TommyDale]

These "gloom and doom" people who tell us where to invest usually have their own agenda. They probably sell and make their quick buck.

[Starwind]

The Mogambo musta been lurkin on another thread and saw your plea Has any body been watching this ? They are still bigger than China in exports and trade dollars with the US. All the talk about China could be a smoke screen. They are also the biggest investor and importer of Chinese goods. I've said this many times but I don't get any response, pos, neg or neutral. , as he's written this to you:

To wit: China is planning to issue dollar and Euro-denominated government bonds. Now this, to me, cowering in my reinforced-steel bunker, is proof positive of how the Chinese are smarter than we are, and that is why they ARE going to eat our lunch.

The plan is simplicity itself. The yuan is currently pegged at 8.3 to the dollar. They issue these dollar-denominated bonds, and get 8.3 yuan for each dollar that somebody invests in these bonds. Then they de-peg the yuan from the dollar. The dollar plunges in value, and now they have a lot of debt where they got 8.3 yuan that they can now literally pay back at pennies on the yuan! ...[snip]...

But until they manage to offload a bunch of this new debt, and thereby saddle some stupid American investors with that toxic junk, then the chances of a revaluation of the yuan is unlikely. Remember, the Chinese sellers of all of this dollar-denominated debt will only prosper with this blatant scheme if they manage to sell the debt BEFORE they devalue.

Taking this with a grain of salt, nonetheless China would also want to unwind all their dollar-denominated positions - perhaps in exchange for Yuan, Yen, Euro, etc before pulling the plug.

[razorback-bert]

Interesting that some focus on gold, ingoring the bonds, growth of comsumer debt and government spending, minimum wage, pension insurance guarantee program and global grain production, mentioned in the article.

Gold must be cause of all the above, to have so much scorn heaped on it by so many.

[Paulie]

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