HURRICANE ISABEL becomes first Atlantic Category 5 Hurricane since 1998.....

National Hurricane Center ^ | September 11, 2003 | Pasch

[John H K]

BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU SEP 11 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ISABEL NOW AT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ISABEL IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE MITCH OF 1998.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...805 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

[PJ-Comix]

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH

This is the part that is frightening. I'm in South Florida and Isabel seems to be headed STRAIGHT at us. Wasn't the last hurricane to be a Category 5, Hurricane Floyd? Floyd was headed straight at us but at the last moment a high pressure front veered it sharply north.

[Howlin]

William, aren't you new to North Carolina? Don't EVER say you're too far north!

[dirtboy]

Floyd never made it quite to Cat 5. But it more than made up for it in the rainfall department.

[Moose4]

Considering I live in Columbia, SC--inland about halfway between Savannah and Myrtle Beach--I sure hope you're wrong. :) For one thing, my wife and I are supposed to be exhibiting in a four-day outdoor art/craft fair in Charlotte next weekend, which would be right about the time ol' Izzy would come to visit if she makes it up here. I just hope she turns out to sea and misses populated areas, because that thing is going to really rip up whatever gets in its way.

}:-)4

[ASA Vet]

Actually we're both wrong.
It's going NW at K knots.
Korea is N of it, and Taiwan is W.
It should hit mainland China if the direction doesn't change.

[John H K]

Floyd peaked as a strong Category 4. Floyd was a "wider" storm however, than Isabel.

Floyd was also somewhat south of Isabel at the same distance east of Florida. Also, Floyd was a tropical storm at the same distance east of Florida Isabel is now.

Even if Isabel continued due west (and that seems somewhat unlikely) it would take 7 days to reach Florida.

[PJ-Comix]

Floyd never made it quite to Cat 5.

Maybe but Floyd was HUGE. It was heading straight towards Ft. Lauderdale and then less than a hundred miles away made a sharp turn towards the north.

[LBelle]

LBelle is pregnant with first child in Islamorada, Florida Keys and doesn't want to evacuate. Say prayers......

[So Cal Rocket]

I don't want it to hit me. But by the looks of it, I', too far north.

Take a look at the storm track from Hugo in 1989...

Isabel is well north of where Hugo was at this point in its travels and made a direct hit in SC.

STAY SAFE!

[dirtboy]

Mitch was the last Cat 5 in 1998. And, like Floyd, it killed with rain, not wind - the worst of its winds abated as it stalled just offshore from Central America. But that slow movement allowed several feet of rain to fall and kill nearly 10,000 people.

[oceanview]

I think it will go north of you, just my opinion.

[Sender]

I'd rather be on a sailboat in that storm than in the crowd outside Arafat's compound. Better chance of survival.

[Wthrman13]

Derecho, is that you?

Anyway, I'll be heading out with the DOWs next week to intercept Isabel, assuming it does actually make landfall. Should be an interesting experience!

[dirtboy]

It should hit mainland China if the direction doesn't change.

The forecast map has it recurving fairly sharply to the north, into southern Korea and then back out to sea on a line north of the Japanese archipelago...

[John H K]

The JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center, US Military) official forecast track has Maemi hitting Korea...

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp1503.gif

Also it's weakened to 120 kts as of the latest advisory, so it's considerably weaker than Isabel.

[PJ-Comix]

I remember Mitch. I knew an American couple that were living on an Island off of Central American and they were in that hurricane for the better part of a week. It just wouldn't go away.

[NCC-1701]

Surf's up!

[So Cal Rocket]

What it looks like is the whirlpool galaxy. There's a lesson there....

[John H K]

Dan,

Hey, suprised to see you here :-) Yes, it's me.

[ASA Vet]

duh, 5 knots