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HURRICANE ISABEL becomes first Atlantic Category 5 Hurricane since 1998.....
National Hurricane Center ^ | September 11, 2003 | Pasch

Posted on 09/11/2003 1:30:19 PM PDT by John H K

BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU SEP 11 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ISABEL NOW AT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ISABEL IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE MITCH OF 1998.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...805 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneisabel; isabel
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To: John H K
ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH

This is the part that is frightening. I'm in South Florida and Isabel seems to be headed STRAIGHT at us. Wasn't the last hurricane to be a Category 5, Hurricane Floyd? Floyd was headed straight at us but at the last moment a high pressure front veered it sharply north.

21 posted on 09/11/2003 1:42:24 PM PDT by PJ-Comix
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To: William Creel
William, aren't you new to North Carolina? Don't EVER say you're too far north!
22 posted on 09/11/2003 1:42:28 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: PJ-Comix
Floyd never made it quite to Cat 5. But it more than made up for it in the rainfall department.
23 posted on 09/11/2003 1:43:48 PM PDT by dirtboy (www.ArmorforCongress.com - because lawyers with a clue are rarer than truth-telling Democrats)
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To: viligantcitizen
Considering I live in Columbia, SC--inland about halfway between Savannah and Myrtle Beach--I sure hope you're wrong. :) For one thing, my wife and I are supposed to be exhibiting in a four-day outdoor art/craft fair in Charlotte next weekend, which would be right about the time ol' Izzy would come to visit if she makes it up here. I just hope she turns out to sea and misses populated areas, because that thing is going to really rip up whatever gets in its way.

}:-)4
24 posted on 09/11/2003 1:45:03 PM PDT by Moose4 (I'm Southern. We've been refighting the Civil War for 138 years, you think we'll forget 9/11?)
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To: dirtboy
Actually we're both wrong.
It's going NW at K knots.
Korea is N of it, and Taiwan is W.
It should hit mainland China if the direction doesn't change.
25 posted on 09/11/2003 1:45:13 PM PDT by ASA Vet (1st Vietnam KIA: ASA Sp/4 James T. Davis)
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To: PJ-Comix
Floyd peaked as a strong Category 4. Floyd was a "wider" storm however, than Isabel.

Floyd was also somewhat south of Isabel at the same distance east of Florida. Also, Floyd was a tropical storm at the same distance east of Florida Isabel is now.

Even if Isabel continued due west (and that seems somewhat unlikely) it would take 7 days to reach Florida.
26 posted on 09/11/2003 1:45:27 PM PDT by John H K
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To: dirtboy
Floyd never made it quite to Cat 5.

Maybe but Floyd was HUGE. It was heading straight towards Ft. Lauderdale and then less than a hundred miles away made a sharp turn towards the north.

27 posted on 09/11/2003 1:45:28 PM PDT by PJ-Comix
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To: PJ-Comix
LBelle is pregnant with first child in Islamorada, Florida Keys and doesn't want to evacuate. Say prayers......
28 posted on 09/11/2003 1:45:34 PM PDT by LBelle
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To: William Creel
I don't want it to hit me. But by the looks of it, I', too far north.

Take a look at the storm track from Hugo in 1989...

Isabel is well north of where Hugo was at this point in its travels and made a direct hit in SC.

STAY SAFE!

29 posted on 09/11/2003 1:45:40 PM PDT by So Cal Rocket (Free Miguel, Priscilla and Bill!)
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To: PJ-Comix
Mitch was the last Cat 5 in 1998. And, like Floyd, it killed with rain, not wind - the worst of its winds abated as it stalled just offshore from Central America. But that slow movement allowed several feet of rain to fall and kill nearly 10,000 people.
30 posted on 09/11/2003 1:45:43 PM PDT by dirtboy (www.ArmorforCongress.com - because lawyers with a clue are rarer than truth-telling Democrats)
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To: PJ-Comix
I think it will go north of you, just my opinion.
31 posted on 09/11/2003 1:46:33 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: TBall
I'd rather be on a sailboat in that storm than in the crowd outside Arafat's compound. Better chance of survival.
32 posted on 09/11/2003 1:46:45 PM PDT by Sender
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To: John H K
Derecho, is that you?

Anyway, I'll be heading out with the DOWs next week to intercept Isabel, assuming it does actually make landfall. Should be an interesting experience!
33 posted on 09/11/2003 1:46:53 PM PDT by Wthrman13
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To: ASA Vet
It should hit mainland China if the direction doesn't change.

The forecast map has it recurving fairly sharply to the north, into southern Korea and then back out to sea on a line north of the Japanese archipelago...

34 posted on 09/11/2003 1:47:08 PM PDT by dirtboy (www.ArmorforCongress.com - because lawyers with a clue are rarer than truth-telling Democrats)
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To: ASA Vet
The JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center, US Military) official forecast track has Maemi hitting Korea...

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp1503.gif

Also it's weakened to 120 kts as of the latest advisory, so it's considerably weaker than Isabel.
35 posted on 09/11/2003 1:48:21 PM PDT by John H K
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To: dirtboy
I remember Mitch. I knew an American couple that were living on an Island off of Central American and they were in that hurricane for the better part of a week. It just wouldn't go away.
36 posted on 09/11/2003 1:48:37 PM PDT by PJ-Comix
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To: HEY4QDEMS
Surf's up!
37 posted on 09/11/2003 1:48:39 PM PDT by NCC-1701 ((Good luck, happy hunting, and God-speed to the US military and our allies in this operation.))
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To: gcruse
What it looks like is the whirlpool galaxy. There's a lesson there....


38 posted on 09/11/2003 1:48:57 PM PDT by So Cal Rocket (Free Miguel, Priscilla and Bill!)
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To: Wthrman13
Dan,

Hey, suprised to see you here :-) Yes, it's me.
39 posted on 09/11/2003 1:49:08 PM PDT by John H K
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To: ASA Vet
duh, 5 knots
40 posted on 09/11/2003 1:49:41 PM PDT by ASA Vet (1st Vietnam KIA: ASA Sp/4 James T. Davis)
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