HURRICANE ISABEL becomes first Atlantic Category 5 Hurricane since 1998.....

National Hurricane Center ^ | September 11, 2003 | Pasch

[John H K]

BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU SEP 11 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ISABEL NOW AT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ISABEL IS THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE MITCH OF 1998.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...805 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Capt.YankeeMike]

well, they are less frequent, why i am not sure. but they do occurr some real doozies form in the south pacific, but they track NW and cross the equator and hit places like samoa, New Guinea, the phillipines and taiwan.

Some big ones form south of the equator in the Indian ocean, and it always seem they hit Bangladesh...

something to do with the rotation of the earth i suppose.
The Capt.

[Hatteras]

I have not tried Cruzan Single Barrel but I was all over Black Seal each time I've been to Bermuda. Beware though. Black Seal and Mopeds don't mix! ;-)

[LTCJ]

I'd like to thank everyone for the interchange on the thread last night. Sorry I wasn't able to repond. After getting the 0500 forecast, I spent the balance of the day working with my section to review our OPLAN in light of Isabel's intensity. We're looking at having to do a lot of repositioning of assets if she keeps this up. Makes for a busy day.

Won't have too much time from this point out to check back in but might peek in from time to time to decompress over a cup of coffee for a few minutes. I've got some down time for the next hour and a half til the 2300 analysis comes out.

[Amelia]

So what's your expert analysis for our area at this point in time?

[StriperSniper]

Psst!

A bunch of good stuff over here too:

Hurricane Isabel - Confirmed Category 5 by Aircraft

[LTCJ]

So what's your expert analysis for our area at this point in time?

Well, I'm an Ops Officer, I leave the forecasting to the Intel guys. I do contengency planning. Keeps me out of a padded room.

I almost drove myself up the wall trying to second guess Floyd - pouring over every peace of data I could get my hands on. Finally realized the bottom line is that there's nothing I can do about the timing or location, so I try not to worry about it. That goes for everything including whether my house will be here or not when I get back.

My best guess is that she'll hit up around the Outer Banks but that doesn't lessen my work load in the slightest. For now, be content with the worst and hope for the best.

[LTCJ]

Hurricane Isabel - Confirmed Category 5 by Aircraft

Thanks, it already caught my eye. Funny how things come together. In my civilian job I did the study which compared tropical storm tracks with aircraft footprints that convinced NOAA to buy their most recent aircraft. Now it's out their gathering data to tell me if I'm gonna get creamed.

[StriperSniper]

Now it's out their gathering data

Don't suppose you have access to enough strings to pull to get someone a ride into one of those monsters?

(Only kidding, but I have wanted to do that since the first time I saw a documentary on those guys. Breaking into the eye and doing a couple of laps looks awesome!)

[LTCJ]

Last time I rode on one into a thunder storm, we took a lightning strike that put a hole the size of your fist in the raydome. It was a maintenance flight and the avionics tech had his toolbox open on the floor. Just before we were hit, we hit a downdraft that put us at 0g for a good 5-10 seconds. His tools floated up into the cabin and just hung there - right up until we hit a 2.3g updraft and they slammed down like an artillery barrage.

If I ever get to fly ito a hurricane, you can have my flight.

[StriperSniper]

Damn! That a bit rougher than fishing in a November gale at the 20 fathom curve in a 20' walkaround. ;-)

(It wasn't bad until the wind shifted from the W to the NE, 3-5's @ 10sec. went to 6-8's @ 6sec. )

[LTCJ]

That a bit rougher than fishing in a November gale

Only for a few minutes, then we flew out of it. Safe to say there was virtually zero chance of my drowning as a result. I've been paler on a boat.

Light green would be considered a form of pale, wouldn't it?

[StriperSniper]

Light green would be considered a form of pale, wouldn't it?

Yup, it's like hair, that's past white. Some of my cousins as kids were platinum blonde, and by the end of the summer in the sun at the Jersey shore, there was a distinct greenish cast to it.

I'm pretty lucky with avoiding mal de mare usually, the last time was a couple years ago when we took a Feb. trip to near the edge of the shelf for Black Sea Bass. Between the greasy chicken, beer, diesel fumes, and a seven hour steam in 8' seas, I started the first drop at dawn with a little 'chum'.

It turned out to be a great trip though, the seas calmed, the sun was bright and warm(shirt-sleave by noon), and we ran out of cooler room. : )

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

One of the songs in the musical "1776" is called "Molasses to Rum to Slaves" talking about the Triangle of trade between Africa, Caribbean and the American Colonies. Yes, indeed - it was a huge commodity during the colonial period.

[SC Swamp Fox]

I'm still betting on a glancing blow of NC's outerbanks. They eye won't make landfall.

[Michael_Michaelangelo]

This one is extremely scary.

Not sure if this pic is legit or not, but it adds to the mystery of this storm.

And here is one of the projected paths that hurricane advisories.com has posted.

At least our technology has enabled us to better prepare for these types of weather phenomena. Prayers go out to all those on the East Coast who will be effected.

MM

[Centurion2000]

Call me superstitious but I think that if Bush and co stop Israel from killing Arafat this thing is coming straight at us and will stay just as strong.

If arafat is dead in 48 hours then it will miss the US.

Looks like it's making a beeline to D.C. ... hmmmm ...

[Ima Lurker]

Well, you just may have something afterall. I spent many years on the Gulfcoast (hope to soon spend many more) and have been up close and personal with a number of hurricanes, but I have never seen one more perfectly formed than this one. And that eyewall....yikes, that thing is huge. Hopefully, she'll lose some steam before she makes landfall.

[theDentist]

Remember that 3 Dog Night song, "Eli's Comin'"?

Someone just sent me this. He knows I live in Chesapeake, and so thought he'd have some fun...

Isabel’s Coming

Isabel’s comin'
Isabel’s comin' (Isabel’s a-comin')
Well you better hide your ass, your loving ass
Isabel’s a-comin' and the cards say... a floaten house

Isabel’s comin', hide your ass, boy
Isabel’s comin', hide your ass, boy
Boy, Isabel’s a-comin', you better hide
Boy, Isabel’s a-comin', you better hide
Boy, Isabel’s a-comin', you better hide
Boy, Isabel’s comin', hide your ass, boy (hide it)
You better, better hide your ass
Isabel’s comin', better walk

Walk but you'll never get away
No, you'll never get away from a floaten-house
I walked to Chesapeake by the bay
Everywhere I go though, Isabel’s a-comin' (he walked but he never got away)
Isabel’s a-comin' (he walked but he never got away)
Isabel’s a-comin' and she's comin' to git ya (he walked but... he walked but...)
Get down on your knees (he walked but he never got away)

Isabel’s comin' (hide it, hide it, hide it)
Boy, Isabel’s a-comin', you better hide
Boy, Isabel’s a-comin', you better hide
Boy, Isabel’s a-comin', you better hide
Boy, Isabel’s comin', hide your ass, boy (hide it)
You better, better hide your ass
Isabel’s comin', better walk

Walk but you'll never get away
No, you'll never get away from a floaten-house
I walked to Chesapeake by the bay
Everywhere I go though, Isabel’s a-comin' (he walked but he'll never get away)
Isabel’s a-comin' (he walked but he'll never get away)
Isabel’s a-comin' and she's comin' to git ya (he walked but... he walked but...)
Get down on your knees (he walked but he'll never get away)
Get down on your knees

No-no, no-no
Lord, I said no-no, no-no, no-no

(hide it) he can
(hide it) hide it
(hide it) You better
(hide it) Somebody
(hide it) You got t'
(hide it) Oh, my
(hide it) Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh

[TBall]

Yikes. I was out of town for the weekend and this is my first chance to look at the news. Hope this thing does not make a line to DC, got some big trees next to my house.

[RightWhale]

Looks like the trade winds have just pinched off another one. NOAA Duck and cover!