HURRICANE ISABEL becomes first Atlantic Category 5 Hurricane since 1998.....

Normally I hope the Weather Service is right. This time I hope they're dead wrong and that storm slams a hard right about Monday evening, and just heads on north between us and Bermuda. I really don't like the looks of that track...we'll know more after the weekend, I guess.

Speaking of late... gotta go to bed in order to get up at 0430 for the 0500 forcast. Nite all.

Goodnite. Will check back in for your update when I get up (late, lol) tomorrow morning. My son is out there somewhere, on a carrier that is performing flight ops. Received an e-mail from him on 9-9 and he said they had just missed the hurricane, that the last two flight ops were cancelled due to weather, and the rain felt like needles hitting you in the face.

I know he's safe, but they've been having problems with their reactors, and mom's are inclined to worry....

No, wait a second....I wish them on the Clintons! Yes, that would be worth the wreckage and distruction if it would wipe them out!

heh heh heh... Hugo almost got Hilton Head Island, where the Beast and its minions have their annual new-age Satan-worshiping convocation every January (forget the name; that's where the Beast got in touch with "The Spirit of Eleanor Roosevelt" (I am not making any of this up, no matter how weird it sounds.).

I think Satan is protecting Hilton Head Island... maybe between you and LBelle, if you pray hard enough, you can bring the whole Atlantic Ocean down on the Clintons' little leftie-liberal-fruitcake "resort" (and spare LBelle while she's pregnant...)

From the TPC:000
WTNT33 KNHC 120843
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2003

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ISABEL CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD
TRACK...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...730
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME TEMPORARY WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.7 N... 57.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

000
WTNT43 KNHC 120843
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003

THERE ARE NO NEW CHANGES TO REPORT OR THAT CAN BE ADDED TO THE
STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF ISABEL AFTER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
BASED ON THE OUSTANDING CLOUD PATTERN...SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 140 KNOTS. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE CORE
STRUCTURE EVOLVES IN THE NEAR TERM...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HERE COMES A LITTLE DISCUSSION ABOUT THE FOUR MAIN MODELS. THE GFDL
WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL...TURNS THE HURRICANE MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...AND DEPENDING UPON THE RUN YOU
PICK...THE TURN OCCURS FARTHER TO THE WEST OR FARTHER TO THE EAST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UK MODEL WHICH HAS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
...MOVES THE HURRICANE FASTER AND BRING ISABEL DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO
THE U.S. COAST IN 5 DAYS. THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING ITS TUNE
FROM RUN TO RUN...IS MUCH SLOWER AND IN 5 DAYS PLACES THE HURRICANE
ABOUT 450 N MI FROM THE U.S COAST. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BRINGS THE
CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
FINALLY...THE NOGAPS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS UP TO 5 DAYS.

NOTE: THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE BEYOND 5
DAYS. IF THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE HURRICANE COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...HERE COMES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ISABEL HAS
BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. MOST IMPORTANTLY...DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATION IN
MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHAT PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY ISABEL.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 21.7N 57.0W 140 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 22.0N 58.4W 130 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 22.5N 60.5W 135 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 23.0N 62.5W 130 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 23.5N 64.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 25.0N 69.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 26.0N 71.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 27.5N 74.0W 110 KT

This one has the winds dying down to 110 as it approaches the coast.

Rowboat lady's current position. She left Canada back in June.

We live at Jacksonville Beach. Always keepin one eye open!

The latest hurricane track predictions show it heading your way.

The storm track you posted makes it look like it is heading for South Georgia.

I haven't heard anything more than you probably have - they just don't know yet. I am concerned, but maybe that is just a factor of my having been in FL only a year.

It really is still too early to predict for Florida (or any U.S. coastal area)yet. The biggest problem is that the computer models NHC rely upon are not in agreement at all.

The most ominous one is UKMET Model. It has Isabel hovering off the mid Florida coast at 120 hours.

That's not the text of an "Advisory" it's the "Discussion" that is issued with each "Advisory" from the NHC.

Both can be found here.

Projected path showing the other weather systems that will direct Isabel's course., compliments of Howlin.

I think I need more caffeine to follow all of those troughs and ridges that are described, yet not necessarily identified in each of those graphics.

What is this guy's success rate?

If you want a real headache at that site, click on GREAT WEB SITE LINK FOR YOU!!! and put those maps in motion.

Topsail Island bump...

Nice link.

Both scenarios are bad news for Florida.

""Both scenarios are bad news for Florida."

Especially the one that calls for it to linger off the FL coast for 3-4-5 days.

We're about to enter the peak of the hurricane season. Any day now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Atlantic Ocean and making two basic meteorological points.

(1) There is no need to panic.

(2) We could all be killed.

Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one." Based on our experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:

STEP 1: Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.

STEP 2: Put these supplies into your car.

STEP 3: Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween. Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Florida.

We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:

HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE: If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets two basic requirements:

(1) It is reasonably well-built, and

(2) It is located in Nebraska.

Unfortunately, if your home is located in Florida, or any other area that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss. Since Hurricane George, I have had an estimated 27 different home- insurance companies. This week, I'm covered by the Bob and Big Stan Insurance Company, under a policy which states that, in addition to my premium, Bob and Big Stan are entitled, on demand, to my kidneys.

SHUTTERS:
Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the doors, and -- if it's a major hurricane -- all the toilets. There are several types of shutters, with advantages and disadvantages:

Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make them yourself, they're cheap.

The disadvantage is that, because you make them yourself, they will fall off.

Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work well, once you get them all up.

The disadvantage is that once you get them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be December.

Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very easy to use, and will definitely protect your house.

The disadvantage is that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.

Hurricane-proof windows: These are the newest wrinkle in hurricane protection: They look like ordinary windows, but they can withstand hurricane winds! You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so. He lives in Nebraska.

Hurricane Proofing your property: As the hurricane approaches, check your yard for movable objects like barbecue grills, planters, patio furniture, visiting relatives, etc... You should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool (if you don't have a swimming pool, you should have one built immediately). Otherwise, the hurricane winds will turn these objects into deadly missiles.

EVACUATION ROUTE:

If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida," you live in a low-lying area). The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.

HURRICANE SUPPLIES:

If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy them now! Florida tradition requires that you wait until the last possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of SPAM. In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies:

23 flashlights. At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when the power goes off, to be the wrong size for the flashlights.

Bleach. (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!)

55 gallon drum of underarm deodorant.

A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in a hurricane, but it looks cool.)

A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask anybody who went through Andrew; after the hurricane, there WILL be irate alligators.)

$35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.

Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.

Good luck, and remember: Its great living in Paradise.

Your post is due credit to Dave Barry

Thank you, I got it as an email, and didn't know who the original author was.