Ugly Storm Abrewing

Batten down the hatches Central Florida this may be a big one.

1 posted on 09/10/2003 7:03:53 PM PDT by Archangelsk

I am southwest Florida, I still think I am going to get a big blow. This one has me worried.

2 posted on 09/10/2003 7:05:15 PM PDT by BushCountry (To the last, I will grapple with Democrats. For hate's sake, I spit my last breath at Liberals.)

Damn, the things headin' our way......nutz

3 posted on 09/10/2003 7:06:04 PM PDT by ThreePuttinDude (Enough of this "Embrace" crap. Stop all this hot topic wording garbage......)

Oh, just GREAT! Spoil the WHOLE week, why doncha?

4 posted on 09/10/2003 7:06:33 PM PDT by Old Sarge (Serving You... on Operation Noble Eagle!)

Thread on this storm already posted -- key word Isabel

5 posted on 09/10/2003 7:07:18 PM PDT by varina davis

To: varina davis

Yeah, but newest NOAA report not until now. :-)

6 posted on 09/10/2003 7:08:02 PM PDT by Archangelsk ("Toss in a buck ya cheap bastard, I paid for your g**damn breakfast." Joe)

7 posted on 09/10/2003 7:08:12 PM PDT by BushCountry (To the last, I will grapple with Democrats. For hate's sake, I spit my last breath at Liberals.)

8 posted on 09/10/2003 7:08:43 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (Back in boot camp! 224.2 (-75.8))

000
WTNT43 KNHC 102024
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISABEL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS AFTERNOON AS EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO -75C AND COLDER...WHILE THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS AVERAGE OUT TO T6.5...OR 127 KT... WITH A PEAK T-NUMBER OF 7.1...OR 143 KT...AT 1815Z. THE 3-HOUR ODT AVERAGE IS T6.3...OR 122 KT. THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES EASILY JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ISABEL IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE ADVISORY INTENSITY INDICATES...BUT WE PREFER TO USE THE 3-HOUR ODT VALUES TO SMOOTH OUT ANY INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. ISABEL HAS DEFINITELY MADE THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z GFS MODEL HAS RETURNED TO ITS OLD WAYS AND NOW MAKES A JOG BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 20N LATITUDE IN 36-48 HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF ISABEL BY THE MODEL...AND THE GFS MAINTAINS A PATHETIC LOOKING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... CERTAINLY NOTHING REMOTELY RESEMBLING A MAJOR HURRICANE...THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE RESULT IS THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST OF ISABEL FORCES THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CANADIAN MODEL AND THE UKMET... TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE...ALSO HAVE SIMILAR LOOKING WEAK CIRCULATIONS...THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY THE 12Z NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZES ISABEL AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE THE NOGAPS MODEL IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK ....WHICH IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

THE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF ISABEL CONTINUES TO EXPAND WESTWARD AS IS GETS DRAWN INTO THE LARGE MID-/UPPER-LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...SO SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. HOWEVER...THE ONLY GOOD NEWS ABOUT INTENSE HURRICANES IS THAT THEY GENERALLY DO NOT REMAIN INTENSE FOR VERY LONG...SO SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 21.2N 51.9W 120 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 21.3N 53.5W 125 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 21.4N 55.2W 120 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 21.5N 56.9W 120 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 21.7N 58.6W 120 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 22.0N 62.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 23.0N 66.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 23.5N 69.5W 115 KT

The next report is due out in less than an hour.

9 posted on 09/10/2003 7:09:57 PM PDT by DaGman

Damn. Looks like possibly another Andrew.

I'd be buying wood and supplies now if I was on the SE coast.

10 posted on 09/10/2003 7:10:28 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan ("Our party will never be the choice of the NRA" - John F. Kerry, who looks French)

11 posted on 09/10/2003 7:10:35 PM PDT by BushCountry (To the last, I will grapple with Democrats. For hate's sake, I spit my last breath at Liberals.)

:sigh: before clicking I thought this was in reference to the CA recall

These hurricanes seem to be coming one right after another!

12 posted on 09/10/2003 7:11:50 PM PDT by cyborg (and you thought I was just joking about the tinfoil hat)

120HR VT 15/1800Z 23.5N 69.5W 115 KT

That's the bad one. I think the water temperature off the south Florida coast is around 82 degrees. Isabel will gather strength here.

13 posted on 09/10/2003 7:14:40 PM PDT by Archangelsk ("Toss in a buck ya cheap bastard, I paid for your g**damn breakfast." Joe)

The question is whether this hurricane will hook, slice or barrel along straight ahead. Hope it stays out of the Gulf of Mexice which turns hurricanes into knuckle balls. Really hard to pridict the strike zone once it gets in there.

Well, at least we don't have to worry about this one until next week.

14 posted on 09/10/2003 7:15:57 PM PDT by Diverdogz

To: Dan from Michigan

While the trends indicate it's unlikely to miss the US mainland, the earliest any landfall could occur is in 7 days, and it could be as much as 10 days or more...

It's a little farther away than people realize, I think.

15 posted on 09/10/2003 7:16:40 PM PDT by John H K

That's true, with each degree of latitude representing 60 NM this one is about 1500 NM away. However, pre-proper planning prevents piss poor performance say I.

16 posted on 09/10/2003 7:19:46 PM PDT by Archangelsk ("Toss in a buck ya cheap bastard, I paid for your g**damn breakfast." Joe)

Long Island does not get too many hurricanes. I feel for Floridians, and for Bermudans even more. I could envision someone cleaning up and watching the next storm move in before they're even done :-(

Wasn't there a recent hurricane they thought was going out to sea then it went full force right into the southeastern seaboard?

17 posted on 09/10/2003 7:19:49 PM PDT by cyborg (and you thought I was just joking about the tinfoil hat)

To: John H K; cardinal4

Bride and I live in Palm Beach County. We're leaving on a long-planned two week national park tour of the west on Saturday. We'll have the hurricane shutters up before we go. Could get interesting.....

18 posted on 09/10/2003 7:22:38 PM PDT by Ax

It is three days away from any land at all at its current speed.

However, in about 4 or 5 days, it's going to increase sales at Home Depot bigtime.

19 posted on 09/10/2003 7:23:42 PM PDT by Dog Gone

I'm glad I live in California....Nah,nah,nah, nah, nah :P

20 posted on 09/10/2003 7:24:16 PM PDT by Porterville (I spell stuff wrong sometimes, get over yourself, you're not that great.)

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