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CA Recall: Las Vegas odds favor Cruz to replace Davis
L.A. Daily News ^ | September 08, 2003 - 9:16:38 PM PST | By Staff and Wire Services

Posted on 09/09/2003 8:07:21 AM PDT by ScottinSacto

Bet Bustamante.

That's the advice of Las Vegas oddsmakers, who predict California voters will recall Gov. Gray Davis and replace him with the state's No. 2 man.

America's Line gives Lt. Gov Cruz Bustamante 4-5 odds, meaning he is so likely to win that a gambler who wagers $5 on him would win only $4.

Even money is on Arnold Schwarzenegger, but nowhere near the 7-5 odds he enjoyed before he skipped last week's candidates' debate.

State Sen. Tom McClintock is a 20-1 pick, followed by commentator Arianna Huffington, 30-1; former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth, 40-1; and Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, 50-1.

Hustler Publisher Larry Flynt, adult film star Mary Carey and former child star Gary Coleman are 500-1 choices.

Everyone else in the crowded field is lumped together at what some may consider a generous 1,000-1.

As far as Davis is concerned, America's Line predicts he will be recalled Oct. 7, despite his recent improvement in the polls. The money line is minus-400 for yes on the recall and plus-300 for no.

Citizens who cast ballots by mail are known for their loyalty in voting. More than 1.2 million voters have permanent absentee status, and hundreds of thousands more are expected to join them for the Oct. 7 recall election.

"The absentee vote is going to be very important, critical," said state Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres, whose party plans to contact 2.1 million likely absentee voters.

In addition, Democrats will send three separate mailings to about 300,000 voters who regularly vote by mail, laying out the reasons the party opposes the recall.

Republican Party officials didn't comment on absentee ballot plans, but the pro-recall group Rescue California kicks off an absentee voting campaign this week that targets Republicans and independents in conservative-leaning counties, spokesman Dave Gilliard said.

Going postal

With absentee voters expected to cast about one-third of recall ballots, campaigns courted them where they vote -- their mailboxes. Schwarzenegger has sent out 2 million brochures and McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, has mailed 300,000. Schwarzenegger's message calls for ending the "outrageous car tax," enacting a constitutional spending cap and making English the nation's official language.

Path to obscurity

The recall's catapult of Bustamante into the national spotlight is fast pushing two wannabe California governors, Attorney General Bill Lockyer and Treasurer Phil Angelides, into obscurity.

The two Democrats have raised $10 million each for the 2006 race, only to find Bustamante flying far ahead of them with less money. Neither has endorsed Bustamante's campaign. To get back on track, both need a victory by Davis or Schwarzenegger. Lockyer recently stood with Davis at a Labor Day rally, but left when Bustamante arrived on the same stage.

The other Feinstein

In the medley of little-known candidates in the recall race, one name stands out: Feinstein. It's not who you think, but Dan Feinstein, a San Francisco visual-effects artist. The 40-year-old Democrat is a distant cousin of U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, but he has never met her. He calls himself "a regular Joe" and said he understands the problems of most people, such as unemployment or the fear of it and the effect of raising tuition. Feinstein acknowledges he has no chance of winning but said he was making a point that a regular guy should run state government.


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: arnold; california; cruz; davis; recall
Are these the same guys that had the Dolphins 14 point favorites over the Texans this past weekend?
1 posted on 09/09/2003 8:07:34 AM PDT by ScottinSacto
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To: ScottinSacto
These guys are reading the same polls as everyone else: the polls that show McClintock is siphoning just enough votes away from Arnold to cause a Bustamante win.
2 posted on 09/09/2003 8:10:31 AM PDT by Behind Liberal Lines
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To: ScottinSacto
Las Vegas odds favor Cruz to replace Davis

As an outsider from "Flyover Country", I must confess to a morbid sense of fascination as I watch California swirl closer and closer to the bottom of the toilet... I guess this proves the old addage about the people getting exactly the kind of politicians that they deserve.

3 posted on 09/09/2003 8:13:00 AM PDT by Kenton
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To: ScottinSacto
The real issue is : Do the pansy Californians want to address their problems or just go for more of the same? With Arnold ther is a hope for change.
4 posted on 09/09/2003 8:13:41 AM PDT by wilmington2
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To: ScottinSacto
I think they're now counting all the illegal Mexicans who'll enter the voting rolls with their shiny new California ID's.
We're waiting for the same scam to be pulled here in NC.
5 posted on 09/09/2003 8:14:26 AM PDT by warchild9
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To: ScottinSacto
Cruz Bustamante does not expect to be only the Governor of California. He is really gunning for the job of Viceroy of Aztlan for Mexico. And voila! all the recent and some not-so-recent immigrants from Mexico are full-fledged citizens.

Anglos (including Americans of African origin who speak either Ebonics or some form of English), Asians and legal residents of Northern European origin will have 90 days to arrange affairs and depart. No exceptions. All street signs will be changed to the Mexican dialect of Spanish, and all business shall be conducted in the same language.

6 posted on 09/09/2003 8:19:18 AM PDT by alloysteel
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To: warchild9
I read one the other day that a guy took a green card employee in to get a drivers liecense and using the greencard as an ID the employee got not only a drivers liecense but a brand new MOTOR VOTER CARD.

Wonder why the demonRATs wanted this passed?
7 posted on 09/09/2003 8:21:36 AM PDT by El Laton Caliente
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To: ScottinSacto
No that's not them. These bozos predicted Bush in FL would loose, he won by about 15%.
8 posted on 09/09/2003 8:21:37 AM PDT by snooker
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To: wilmington2
The real issue is : Do the pansy Californians want to address their problems or just go for more of the same?

There are just enough who given the choice of being ruled by a RINO or Mexico will choose Mexico.

9 posted on 09/09/2003 8:22:02 AM PDT by byteback (Don't vote for a proven loser)
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To: snooker
I assume you mean Jeb for Gov of FL? If so, that is good news about their "accuracy".
10 posted on 09/09/2003 8:25:25 AM PDT by ScottinSacto (www.rtumble.com for all the CA political news)
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To: ScottinSacto
The gangsters who run the Las Vegas casinos get rich by bringing the weekenders in from L.A. on sucker bets tailored just for the Angelenos.
11 posted on 09/09/2003 8:27:16 AM PDT by BenLurkin (Socialism is slavery)
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To: Behind Liberal Lines
Well, there is another poll coming today:

President Allan Zaremberg, CA Chamber of Commerce, and Mike Baselice, Baselice & Associates, release chamber poll on recall election. 10 a.m., 1215 K St., 14th floor. Contact Sara Lee 444 6670. Also available to media via call-in. Contact Lee for number.

And being that they endorsed the Chamber endorsed its first statewide candidate in its history last week (Arnold), this should have a slight variance on the numbers (probably both AS and Tom McC will see a bump).

12 posted on 09/09/2003 8:30:02 AM PDT by ScottinSacto (www.rtumble.com for all the CA political news)
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To: ScottinSacto
"America's Line gives Lt. Gov Cruz Bustamante 4-5 odds, meaning he is so likely to win that a gambler who wagers $5 on him would win only $4."

Talk about going from Bad to Worse, and I guess it's not bad enough for the folks in California to wake up yet.

13 posted on 09/09/2003 8:33:45 AM PDT by anoldafvet
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To: ScottinSacto
ooops ... Yep that's right the GOV. Bush.
14 posted on 09/09/2003 8:36:04 AM PDT by snooker
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To: ScottinSacto
Let the next recall begin.
15 posted on 09/09/2003 8:49:52 AM PDT by onedoug
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To: byteback
If that is what you want then this could very well be your chance:

"Viva la Raza!"???

16 posted on 09/09/2003 8:54:35 AM PDT by BenLurkin (Socialism is slavery)
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To: ScottinSacto
Join Us…Your One Thread To All The California Recall News Threads!

Want on our daily or major news ping lists? Freepmail DoctorZin

17 posted on 09/09/2003 9:29:25 AM PDT by DoctorZIn
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To: ScottinSacto
Didn't gamblers give BustaMECHA a couple million dollars? Looks like Casinoes are stacking the deck in their favor. Their betting system for this race is about as trustworthy as the LA TIMES polls.

McClintock needs to remember the Perot effect of 1992 and drop out. I would vote for him if not for the issue of illegal immigration, but Arnold in office of CA is a lot better than Cruz as Gov. of Aztlan.

18 posted on 09/09/2003 9:39:25 AM PDT by pulaskibush (RINO or MEXICO, I would go with RINO)
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To: ScottinSacto
Oooh! Ya don't think that the elites are peeing in their pants. Welcome Cruz. Possibly by your administration we can have that all-out war with these forces. Why die from 1000 cuts. And if whitie wants to sit on his a$$ & let them take over so be it. When the only course of action that whitie can come up with is a peaceful demonstration with 50 people, so be it. Metinks that the 1000 cuts represents this group of public school sheeple & the Peter Ueberrths as example. However, we are dealing with groups that will take over this state & they will not play by any rules. Bush will be jerking off in Swazeland or handing Teddy Kennedy the schools & senior drug program as the ambulance chaser from NY, Chuckie Schumer will run the judicial dept by defacto. Again gold is up & RUSH is telling us that everything is fine in Iraq & Afganistan & that the nation is becoming more conservative.
19 posted on 09/09/2003 10:12:01 AM PDT by Digger
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