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My gut says that Arnold is in the mid 20's and his support is shaky (as moderate support always is), while McClintock is around 15% having barely got his message out. Consider the virtual blackout on McClintock until very lately; Arnold got all the press. There were a number of polls where Tom wasn't even represented as a candidate! Now, consider the enormous pressure the CAGOP is putting on every one of its corporate constituencies to support Schwarzenegger.

Had they thrown in with McClintock this would be a slam dunk, but the CAGOP leadership won't support a conservative candidate. That's the one principal reason that they have given to conservatives not to support Mr. Schwarzenegger.

This poll was taken by DC business interests and posted a couple of days ago after the debate.

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New survey confirms governor can’t help himself; shows McClintock in possible tie with Schwarzenegger, Bustamante.

by William E. Saracino (contributes regularly to CPR Online)

The Gov. Gray Davis anti-recall campaign’s new television commercial features Sen. Diane Feinstein looking into the camera urging voters to oppose the recall. Davis does not appear and is barely mentioned, although he is the man the commercial is meant to benefit. Expect this to be the standard Davis commercial for the balance of the election — lots of Feinstein and other surrogates, little or no Davis.

Recent polling has confirmed what earlier surveys and focus groups first suggested: that the governor loses ground with voters when he makes his own case. A survey taken late last week for an amalgam of Sacramento-based statewide organizations by a nationally- respected east coast polling firm was the latest to show this phenomena.

A source familiar with this latest poll described the sight or sound of the governor as “fingernails on a chalkboard to a large majority of voters.” A Sacramento source who saw the figures described the average voter’s view of Davis as being “Richard Nixon without the charm.” The survey reportedly showed the governor’s approval rating in danger of slipping below 20 percent.

Senator Feinstien, on the other hand, remains highly popular, especially with the Democrat base, from whom a heavy turnout is essential if Davis is to have any chance of survival. Feinstein will be featured in a series of pro-Davis commercials, as will be “man in the street” testimonials from teachers, fire fighters, and other public employees.

The candidate portion of the same poll contained good news for state Sen. Tom McClintock. While exact numbers were not released, those familiar with the survey described the results as having McClintock “within the margin of error” of being tied for first with Arnold Schwarzenegger and Cruz Bustamanate. Such a split would probably fall in the 25 percent range for each candidate.

The other major Republican, Peter Ueberroth, who is running as an Independent, was said to be “in the low single digits,” currently showing “no perceptible movement.”

These results could prove to be a huge break for McClintock and bad news for Schwarzenegger. But for the senator to benefit tangibly from this closely-held private survey, the numbers will have to be released or confirmed by one or more public surveys. One private poll will not change the current “two-man race” perception of most pundits and many voters. But if new, soon-to-be-released polls also show McClintock closing in on the lead, the “conventional wisdom” of recent weeks would be shattered, opening an entirely new phase of the campaign.