In California Race, an Online Invitation to Profit

Washington Post ^ | Sept. 7, 2003 | Guy Gugliotta

[FairOpinion]

At the Iowa Electronic Markets, you can spend $5 or $500 online buying and selling futures for the California recall election, with 12 different outcomes open for trading and an opportunity to treble your investment if you don't let sentiment get in the way of greed.

"We ask you to think about not what you want to happen, but what you think is going to happen," said Joyce Berg, a member of IEM's board of directors and an accounting professor at the University of Iowa's Henry B. Tippie College of Business -- inventor and custodian of the electronic market.

IEM was significantly more accurate than the polls in the 1988 and 1992 U.S. presidential elections, significantly less so in 1996, and ended in the middle of the pack, as muddled as anyone, in 2000.

"Wrong," he (Mark Kleiman) wrote on his Web site a couple of days later, after watching IEM. Recalculating, he gave Schwarzenegger 37 percent, with Bustamante at 33 percent and Davis holding at 30 percent.

Iowa Electronic Market: California Recall

[FairOpinion]

Current bids:

http://128.255.244.60/quotes/69.html

Arnold and BustaMEChA are neck and neck.

In the % vote prediction:

Name Bid Ask

AS 0.34 0.49

CB 0.29 0.42

McClintock is not listed

In the % probability of win, Bustamante is ahead:

AS 0.45 0.6

CB 0.53 0.6

You can visit http://www.tradesports.com and http://www.wsex.com also.

At tradesports.com:

Name BID ASK (representing % prob. of WIN)

AS: 41 44

CB 36 39

TMc 1.8 2

[goldstategop]

The money markets are accurate predictors of a win. People their money where their mouths are and unlike polls, they don't lie.

[FairOpinion]

I also found a cartoon, that I might as well post here. It is respectful of Tom, but is also truthful of his election chances:

[FairOpinion]

"The money markets are accurate predictors of a win. People their money where their mouths are and unlike polls, they don't lie. "

===

That's why I bolded this part in the excerpt:

"We ask you to think about not what you want to happen, but what you think is going to happen,"

[goldstategop]

Exactly. When people have a real stake in something, it goes a lot further than mere sentiment, which is as changeable as a weathervane.

[FairOpinion]

ping for CA thread

[goldstategop]

Large Breasts is currently in the lead in all the markets with 25%. He has NOT moved from there since August, which leads to me to think he'll lose. In a Democratic leaning state like California, he should be way ahead by now with at least 45% of the vote. For the Democrats, that can't be a good sign.

[daviddennis]

When it comes to making money, I'd be a lot more interested in the Ballot 1 Market. Curiously enough, GD_OUT shares are 77c but RECALL_VS_YES shares are 58c.

Seems to me the RECALL_VS_YES shares are undervalued with respect to GD_OUT shares. Does this mean market participants feel Davis will resign?

D

[Dog Gone]

No, the two shares ask different questions.

The 77c shares are a yes/no question as to whether Davis will be out.

The 58c shares represent the market opinion of the percentage of the vote that will be in favor of the recall.

If anything, that means that the GD out shares are significantly undervalued at 77c, and probably should trading at about the 90c level.

[DoctorZIn]

Join Us…Your One Thread To All The California Recall News Threads!

Want on our daily or major news ping lists? Freepmail DoctorZin