Background: Israel May Face US Pressure Regardless of Next PA Leader

IMRA ^ | 6 September 2003 | Dr. Aaron Lerner

[yonif]

While some in Israel may think that the resignation of PA PM Abu Mazen has derailed President Bush's road map juggernaut there is every reason to believe that the Palestinians may succeed in once again playing their "weakness" to an advantage.

During the course of Abu Mazen's short term, Washington's expectations plummeted from requiring the Palestinians to actually act against the terror infrastructure to hopes that the level of terror activity would be low enough that the "process" could continue - with a sovereign Palestinian state formed within a few months as per the road map.

With Abu Mazen's resignation, whoever or whatever Palestinian government that follows may enjoy even lower expectations from Mr. Bush's team, the argument being that requiring any substantive Palestinian compliance will doom the new government to the same fate as Abu Mazen's.

If this is the case, the Bush Administration may very well press Israel even harder to drop its insistence on Palestinian compliance and continue with the road map come what may.

Ironically, with Bush's ratings dropping in America, one would expect his re-election team to be polling to see how his complacence regarding Palestinian terror is impacting on his support. It would appear that his team's blind devotion to the road map is so powerful that their drive to create a sovereign Palestinian state may even transcend the goal of getting their boss reelected.

Already today fear of American reactions has seriously undermined Israel's decision making process - as illustrated by the ineffectual "compromise bombing" Israel carried out today against top Hamas leaders Yassin, Deff and others in which a smaller than required charge was used. This is the second time that Deff escaped an Israeli attack alive because the explosive charge was too small due to PR considerations.

[yonif]

Ironically, with Bush's ratings dropping in America, one would expect his re-election team to be polling to see how his complacence regarding Palestinian terror is impacting on his support. It would appear that his team's blind devotion to the road map is so powerful that their drive to create a sovereign Palestinian state may even transcend the goal of getting their boss reelected.

[Batrachian]

This is exactly what I said in a previous post today. The Bush Administration will pressure Israel to work with whoever Arafat installs as Mazen's succesor, before they even know who it is.

This is one time when I had hoped to be wrong, but the writing is on the wall.

This is what happens when process is everything and results don't matter, as long as the process continues. When is the U.S. going to admit that the Palestinians don't want peace? They damn well know it.

[fiftymegaton]

--During the course of Abu Mazen's short term, Washington's expectations plummeted from requiring the Palestinians to actually act against the terror infrastructure to hopes that the level of terror activity would be low enough that the "process" could continue - with a sovereign Palestinian state formed within a few months as per the road map. --

What 'process' is going to continue?? Is it the process of Israel disarming and demolitioning their own settlements? I hope not. If the State Department's 'process' continues on as it has been in 5 years the Palestinians(along with Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Yassir Arafat and his Al-Aqsas Martyrs Brigade)will be laughing while Israel agrees to dismantle all of their tanks and to decommission all of their fighter jets. And then to celebrate Hamas will send a homicide bomber to blow up a bus in downtown Jerusalem. GREAT 'plan'.

[goldstategop]

The point is Washington could set itself up for a fall. You know it brings to mind the old adage, "pride goeth before a fall." If the Bush White House pressures Israel to create a state for terrorists, President Bush WILL be a one term President like his father.