Hurricane Fabian over Bermuda (120mph winds)

hurricane.terrapin ^ | 9.05.2003 | NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

[RedBloodedAmerican]

Hurricane fabian discussion number 35 Nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl 5 am edt fri sep 05 2003

The latest air force recon has reported a circular 40 nm mi radar Eye. Also...the pressure has risen to 948 mb. The recon has just Flown into the ne quad and found a 110 kt flight level wind. Based On this...the pressure rise and eye diameter i am adjusting the Initial intensity to 105 kts.

The initial motion estimate remains at 350/15. There is no Significant change to the previous forecast reasoning. Fabian has Made several minor oscillations over the past day or so and we have Made minor adjustments to the track. But overall the system has Been well behaved in a forecast sense. Fabian is now expected to Pass over or near bermuda in about 18 hours or so. By 48 Hours...the hurricane should get caught up in the encroaching Mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of an upper-level trough Nearing the u.s. east coast and be accelerated rapidly to the Northeast.

Some fluctuation in the intensity is still possible for the next 24 To 36 hours however...these will likely be short-lived aberrations And significant weakening is not expected until after 36 hours when Increasing upper-level southwesterly shear begins to take its toll On the cyclone.

Preparations in bermuda should be rushed to completion since the Weather should begin to deteriorate in bermuda during the next 6 Hours or so. Tropical storm force winds should begin to affect Bermuda some time this morning.

Forecaster jarvinen

Forecast positions and max winds

Initial 05/0900z 29.5n 65.2w 105 kt

12hr vt 05/1800z 31.5n 65.3w 105 kt

24hr vt 06/0600z 34.3n 64.0w 105 kt

36hr vt 06/1800z 36.5n 61.5w 100 kt

48hr vt 07/0600z 38.5n 58.0w 95 kt

72hr vt 08/0600z 46.0n 47.5w 70 kt...becoming extratropical

96hr vt 09/0600z 54.3n 30.2w 55 kt...extratropical

120hr vt 10/0600z 59.1n 9.5w 45 kt...extratropical

[RedBloodedAmerican]

Included a webcam shot:

[RedBloodedAmerican]

[bart99]

Got a link/url for the webcam there??

Thanks.

B.

[RedBloodedAmerican]

http://www.bermudashorts.bm/glencam


Somewhere on his website!

[RedBloodedAmerican]

Holy smokes. They just put up a 4 year old image on there!!! They had a live one last night when I was watching it, and I pasted it here from notepad. Crud!

[petuniasevan]

Boy that's outdated.

[RedBloodedAmerican]

If there's any way to, can you delete the image of the webcam, or would you have to kill the entire thread? The webcam they have up there is outdated, not "live".

Kill the thread if you need to, I am certain someone will post this again today.

[RedBloodedAmerican]

Yep, see post 5.

[Rebelbase]

Found an active webcam on the island:

Camera is at this link.

Nice weather links for Bermuda here:

Bermuda Biological Station for Research weather links.

[Rebelbase]

One more link. This one has a message board at the bottom.

Caribbean Hurricane Network

[ctlpdad]

thanks for the post.

my neighbor has a house right on the south coast, we were supposed to head over in october, may have to bring tools now.

[Hatteras]

We last stayed in Bermuda on the south shore (Warwick?) at the Mermaid Beach Club (I think it's undergone renovation and is now the Breakers Beach Club). Some of the nicest people I ever met were on that island. The club got pounded a few years ago by another hurricane.

(Our room was the one on the first floor, far right)

They have a cool little beachbar built into a grotto under the hotel (bottom left) I hope they remember to move the Gosling's Black Seal up stairs...

[bart99]

Thanks for the links. The one with the message board is good...... someone is describing the conditions 'live'.

B.

[bart99]

Appreciate you starting the thread!

B.

[LizardQueen]

We went there when I was a kid and stayed at the same place you did! Neat to see pics of it after all these years.

Due to scheduling issues we ended up in the room on the 2nd floor, in the middle with the big rounded balcony - my parents hadn't asked for that giant suite but ended up with it, not sure how.

It's a great place, I hope it survives this storm ok.

LQ

[Hatteras]

I love the forecast under the "Today" and "Tonight" headings, almost a soothing calmness to it:

Bermuda Public Forecast Issued at 5:30 am - Friday, 5th September, 2003

Headline - Hurricane Warning

Public Synopsis - Fabian, a powerful hurricane, continues to approach from the south and is expected to be a direct hit this evening. Tropical storm force winds will begin this morning, increasing to hurricane force this afternoon. We can expect severe thunderstorms, heavy surf, storm surge, and possibly tornadoes to affect the island as Fabian passes by.

Today - Overcast with heavy rain and occasional thunderstorms... Winds strong to gale force easterly, increasing storm force to hurricane force by afternoon and hurricane force by evening with higher gusts likely... High near 86°.

Tonight - Overcast with heavy rain, occasional thunderstorms and possible tornadoes... Winds hurricane force east-southeasterly, increasing southerly hurricane force with gusts to hurricane force , becoming variable, then westerly, decreasing strong to gale force by morning... Low near 82°.

Saturday - Mostly cloudy with rain and showers in the morning, soon clearing to mostly sunny... Winds strong to gale force westerly, decreasing moderate to strong by evening, and moderate overnight... High near 90°.

I'll have to say an extra prayer for them.

[ctlpdad]

I have only been there for lunch when i was in the USCG. Was hoping to go for a weekend in Oct for my daughter & my neighbors daughters birthdays. they have a place there, i think his sister owns it. The house is amazing, with a pool that one of those disappearing waterfalls that looks right out onto the ocean from the kitchen.
I hope the place survives unscathed, although that seems unlikely.

[stainlessbanner]

Let's go surfing!

Fabian & Henri ... mixed swell for Sat and Sun.

5-7 ft






3-6 ft

4-7 ft+

4-7 ft+

4-6 ft

4-6 ft





4-6 ft

Date: Tides: Water: Winds: Report:

Fri, Sep 5th    6:30am Visual L   10:00am     H   4:00pm 78°   Early: SW 2mph   Later: SE>SW 10-20mph Fabian swell producing long, clean mostly closed-out lines. Lulls allowing some novices to make it to te impact zone, then getting caught by sets. Strong paddlers making it out.   Forecast ... Stormy, windy later from TS Henri as it comes across Florida. Expect mixed groundswells from Henri and Fabian for Sat and Sun.    Freeman

[NCjim]

Thanks for starting this thread. I was reading the WaPo link on Drudge and had to laugh at the last sentence of the article:

Former U.S. presidential candidate Ross Perot has a home in Bermuda, as do actors Michael Douglas and Catherine Zeta-Jones.

As if that matters to most of us...

[TrappedInLiberalHell]

Former U.S. presidential candidate Ross Perot has a home in Bermuda

So I guess that 'giant sucking sound' from the south is actually a hurricane.