2-Year Weather Forecasts Are Planned

AP ^ | Wed, Sep 03, 2003

[nothingnew]

The Farmers Almanac on line. What else is new?

FMCDH

[larryjohnson]

Accuweather has 15 day forecasts that are not bad for planning. They were formed many years ago at Penn State.

[Rhetorical pi2]

'Can't tell you if it will rain on your wedding day. However there are other MAJOR obstacles to getting married that afternoon/evening.

Examples: UCLA @ Oklahoma
GA @ LSU
WVa @ Maryland
TN @ FLA
Michigan @ Oregon
Arizona @ Purdue
Texas A&M @ Va Tech

What's a thunderstorm compared with the effects that missing these games will have on your guests?!! :o)
Big screen TV's and beer at the reception? (Cheaper than the band would be!) :o)

[larryjohnson]

Use this same link in a few days. It is the second page of the 15 day forecast.

AccuWeather.com - CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA Local Weather Forecast
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/8to15day_local.asp?partner=accuweather&zipcode=22901&metric=0

[larryjohnson]

Tell these Troops that they don't tell the truth or don't answer for their actions

Airmen attend Army weather course

http://www.af.mil/stories/story_print.asp?storyID=123005536
 

[Deanies_Papa]

FWIW:
I work with these two guys, and as usual, the reporter made their work sound different than it actually is. They are trying to look at the 'big picture', e.g. if the rains will come over an area the size of a state, or larger, in a specific month down the road a while. Climatology is pretty good for starters (what's happened in early September for the last 50 years) but they want to be able to make precip forecasts better than just climo. Farmers like this stuff- if its gonna be a drier season than last year, maybe they'll plant drought resistant crops instead of those they might normally do. So, yeah, it is tough to forecast for right here (the 1 square foot I occupy) 72 hours in advance, the forecasters do pretty well for an area (say the county) in 72 hours.

So why do I care?? I'm an atmospheric scientist myself!(boos from the crowd.....)

[MalcolmS]

>>>Anyone know if my wedding will be rained out on September 20th? <<<

Yes, it will absolutely be completely rained out.

Therefore, you should immediately change your date to Sept 19, which just coincidentally happens to be National Talk Like a Pirate Day.

http://www.talklikeapirate.com/

Imagine how much more memorable your wedding will be:

"Arrrr. Do thee take this comely wench to be thy wife, for plunder or poverty, be thee peg-legged and sickly or hale, until thou art blown asunder by grapeshot?"

Arrrr Matey!

[From The Deer Stand]

Interesting article, but 90% of it is guesswork. The weather can take strange turns within a few hours and even the best "forecasters" are caught off guard, including soldier forecasters.

[1Old Pro]

If you want a weather report, look out the window to the West. If you want an extended forecast look to see what the weather is like in the state to your West. If you want a one week forecast, join the club.

[1Old Pro]

Anyone know if my wedding will be rained out on September 20th?

nope

[larryjohnson]

Thanks for your Service. It was well after mine.

'Hunters' fly with hurricanes
http://www.af.mil/stories/story.asp?storyID=123005529

[zeugma]

The type of weather prediction they are talking about is impossible today, and will likely remain so. Take a close look at some of the rather interesting findings of Chaos theory and quantum mechanics to get an idea why. I don't think they'll ever be able to say with any kind of certainty that what the weather will be like two years into the future.*

The above prediction does not apply in Texas. I can give you a 2, 3, 5 , 10 year prediction.... HOT. That's it. Pretty much the same from April to October. :-)

[zeugma]

I'd like to take this opportunity to mention something I think may be of interest to many here, as it involves tactics one can take when attempting to pull the scales that covers the eyes of most when it concerns the media.

You mention in your post...the reporter made their work sound different than it actually is.

I firmly believe that just about everyone on the planet, regardless of whatever 'formal' education they have, has one subject that they know really well. Think of the biggest rube you've ever met, that couldn't find his own rear end in a phone booth. Probe the fellow for a while and you'll find it. It could be Anything, cars, sailing, the political philosophy 17th century Heugonots... whatever.

Once you find it, you can probe a little further. See if htey can recall the subject in question being reported upon by a member of the media. (The Heugonot fellow may have a hard time coming up with one, but chances are, sometime or another it has come up.)

Then find out what they thought of the reportage. In most cases, I have found, the media almost univerally gets the story wrong in every important respect. The person you are talking to will probably go on at great length about the various aspects that were screwed up, overlooked, or just plain lied about by the reporter. This is a good thing.

Now for the kill.... Ask them how, given how badly the story(ies) they mentioned were reported, can they possibly give any great deal of credibility to reporters who cover things they aren't an expert on? You can follow this line quite a while if you want to.

Beyond the basic who, what, where questions, most reporting does a terrible job on just about any subject you care to mention. Even the basic W.W.W. is often screwed up beyond recognition by the time it makes it out of a newsroom or into print. You don't need to rant about agendas, liberals, or anything else. (The Lord knows I do that too much anyway). If you can get people to question the basic premise behind what they see, hear or read in the 'news', you've gone a long way towards opening them up to a lot more than you may ever realise.

This is kind of a pet cause of mine. Someday I'm going to sit down and really write this up properly.

[cyborg]

Heh.. and God is planning two years worth of surprises....

[F16Fighter]

"If two Huntsville scientists are successful in their experiments..."

Yeah, IF these two can pull this off, I'm flying them up to Monmouth Park for a few "forecasts" on the daily-double AND trifecta.

[Cosmo]

the farmer's almanac says it hasn't rained on the 20th for 10 years....but then, we haven't had such a wet summer in my lifetime.

thanks for the link:)

[Cosmo]

One of the UVA sports medicine docs is giving away my bride. We picked the 20th because he wouldn't show up if the Hoos were playing:)