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To: Starwind
"So electronics contributes a distorted 'health' to the latter decade of manufacturing, whereas manufacturing stood on its heavy industry strength in previous decades."

I think that I read that in your earlier and got distracted before bringing it up. I don’t understand your rationale for calling it “distorted”. The same could be said during the introduction of any new product such at automobiles or airplanes. Our society simply refocused on what to build.

BTW, Can you show me a reference to aerospace being taken out of these numbers? Now I agree that would seem to be a “distortion”.

44 posted on 09/09/2003 6:49:07 PM PDT by boingo_temp
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To: boingo_temp
The distortion is to the manufacturing statistic - what it would look like without Electronics sector or with aerospace included in the manufacturing statistics.

Go look at the tables I've linked. You can see for yourself there is no aircraft/aerospace sector, whereas for example there is a motor vehicle sector. Go look at the Factory Orders (for example U.S. July factory orders rose 1.6 pct) reports and you'll see defense and non-defense aircraft reported.

A chained data series is calculated for each time period in the series independent of other time periods. Each time period has it's own price adjustments (reflecting sector/product pricing during that period) applied to the actual sector/product output of that period. I don't know much more about the detailed mechanics of how each element in the series is actually computed or what the specific parameters are.

wouldn't the chained data extracted from an earlier sample period under report todays industrial production (absent other effects that make it inaccurate)?

If a sector (aircraft) were to be included in manufacturing, data for 1987 would not be added back in 1987 and then computed forward with some yearly adjustment. The aircraft production in each year would be adjusted for price (relative to prices in 1996) in each year and then would become a new series of yearly figures.

Your question implies an inherent or embedded interrelationship among each years elements in a series which I don't believe exists. Each years value is purely the result of that years production and pricing, regardless of what happended in previous or subsequent years. But I'm not sure I understand your question.

46 posted on 09/09/2003 7:34:35 PM PDT by Starwind (The Gospel of Jesus Christ is the only true good news)
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