I think 3 and 4 are right. However, I believe a Dean disaster in 2004 is in Hillary's best interest. Also, a loss to Bush in 2004 would not necessarily help her in 2008. Remember, she will not be able to run a "silent" campaign for the presidency, like she did in the NY Senate race. A campaign for the presidency will significantly raise her negatives across the country. Also, the more time she can put between 9/11 and her run for the presidency, the better. She can only win if Americans begin to forget and take their focus off of national security. In this sense, I think no major terrorist attacks in a Bush 2nd term would actually help Hillary.
Again, just my view. I just can't see how it would benefit Hillary to run now, even with the Democrat candidates facing disaster. I don't believe she would fare any better right now.
However, I believe a Dean disaster in 2004 is in Hillary's best interest YEs, but if Wesley Clark runs, he will defeat Dean and screw up her plans. That is why this thread exists to begin with...the playing field has changed with Clark's approaching entry.