Oh, I do see your point. How and ever, if AS did drop out, methinks that the California middle ground would move back to Davis and the recall would fail. A pretty good educated hunch, based on how Californians have voted since Clinton won the state in 1992.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
How and ever, if AS did drop out, methinks that the California middle ground would move back to Davis and the recall would fail. A pretty good educated hunch, based on how Californians have voted since Clinton won the state in 1992.I think national analyses of CA's electorate since 1988 have been highly superficial. I dealt with that a bit, over here. (shameless plug warning, btw)
While some of the erratic poll results we've seen are certainly due to poor methodology, I think they also reflect a genuine volatility which might well last through to election day.
As for what might happen in the event of an AS withdrawal (not that I expect one, at this point, I'm just running with your hypothetical), there are again a lot of variables which defy conventional two-party dynamics in CA. Bustamante is the face of La Raza here, and won't ever pull well among blacks. I believe this puts a cap on his potential statewide support at between 35% and 45% (barring a strong voter fraud turnout, I'd lean toward the lower). Proposition #54, the racial privacy referendum, may well skew October 7th turnout further to the right.
All of the energy in this recall is coming from the right, and I'm skeptical that it would simply dissipate if Arnold were to withdraw, as in your hypothetical.