[ER_in_OC,CA]

Wow. The only thing that's clear is that the polls are all over the place.

I think the most accurate poll is one heavily emphasizing LIKELY VOTERS (perhaps only those who have voted in the last two major elections in CA -- 2000 and 2002.) Plus, I think the best methodology at this point is an "unaided" ballot, where the poll taker does NOT mention candidate names. After all, everyone who goes to the polling place will see 100+ candidates so it's not the usual <10 list of candidates.

I would expect in an "unaided" ballot with only voters who have voted in each of the past two major statewide elections, you'd see Arnold with a significant lead over Bustamante, with McClintock registering in Ueberroth-land. It would be a lead that could be taken away with a strong Bustamante push with adverts and with union GOTV efforts.

Before the McClintock army jumps on my post, let me say that I really think highly of the guy, and if he's leading Schwarzenegger in credible polls near the election, I will vote for him.

[Stars N Stripes]

I'll be making up my mind as the election nears, as will most of my fellow Californian's. I just though it was interesting how different the poll results ABC will be reporting are, compared to the Times.

[NormsRevenge]

Before the McClintock army jumps on my post, let me say that I really think highly of the guy, and if he's leading Schwarzenegger in credible polls near the election, I will vote for him.

---

That's all many Tom folks are asking for, but NOOO.. to some ardent Cruz and Arnie supporters, it's all or nothing now, not late in September after a billion words have been written about the recall and the candidates. But instead, we are castigated for even trying to support a conservative candidate.

This highlights one of the weaknesses of this forum, in that, you don;t know who is an operative or counter operative for who and why. A lot of stuff gets toosed in here to get folks worked up in a tizzy over nothing.

Myself, I am doing minimal posting until some candidates actually present position on issues, etc.

I will, however, not delay in sticking someone's nose in it if they are obviously lacking any civility in their comments and merely attacking for attack's sake. ;-)

,P>And I agree , the polls are all over the place. Remember the only one that counts is Oct. 7th. (I know I'll get flamed for that, Oh well!)

[RobbyS]

I would expect in an "unaided" ballot with only voters who have voted in each of the past two major statewide elections,

My daughter got great results on such a poll. At election time she was off by about 1%.

[tubebender]

Davis and Company have not started bashing AS yet and when they do it will be with a vengence and money will be no problem for them. The second part of the ballot doesn't exist for them the only goal is to save face. If McClintock were to drop out now they would would be home free and we would have egg on our face. Anyone that does not consider Davis beating this recall is a fool...

[Wolfstar]

See my Post #100 about polling.