Replies

What's the Party breakdown % in Ca, anyway?

I'll have to look it up somehting like 44-38-11, but the numbers are deceiving. People in CA don't really vote straight party line to the extent they do on the East Coast.

There are a lot of Dems, expecially in the Central Valley that vote pretty conservative. Legislative seats are considered safe when they hit 42% Rep, but Dems need 48% to be considered safe.

Finally, the turnout in this election is going to favor Republicans, skewing those numbers even further.

Republicans are at 35.2% and Democrats are at 44.2%

But you CAN NOT judge elections by registration numbers! In 1994--when Republicans in the Assembly won 9 seats, we took over congress (even here in California!)--Democrat registration was 49%. That means that Democrats have LOST 5% of their voters. (Republicans lost 1% since 1994.) Most of these have gone to DTS.

Republicans historically turn out in larger numbers than Democrats, except recently when Republicans have been disinclined to go to the polls because of un-inspiring candidates. Many of my conservative friends skipped the presidential ballot in 2000 (and I, for one, THANK GOD we had George Bush on 9/11 and not Al Gore.)

In this recall, who is motivated to vote? CONSERVATIVES. Will all these people jumping up and down with stars in the eyes actually make it to the polls on election day? I doubt it. Will people who vote against the recall vote for Cruz Bustamante? History says 30% will not vote at all on the second question.

The question is not what are the registration numbers and can Republicans win. The question is, will conservatives vote? If that answer is YES, we can not only dump Davis, but we can elect a conservative to replace him -- and he is Tom McClintock.