McClintock Facing Republican Threats?

Belly of the Beast Blog ^ | August 24, 2004 | Eric Hogue

[Eric Hogue 1380 KTKZ]

Now that Bill Simon has left the building, State Senator Tom McClintock currenlty has the 'only growing campaign'. I'm reading the LA Times article on Simon's departure this morning and I find this nugget of political muscle.

[Pubbie]

"It's only one poll that has the 12% figure, all others have him at 5% to 6%."

The California polls have Simon and McClintock's combined support at about 17-18%:

"The new LA Times poll had Simon and McClintock's combined numbers at 18%, while the (older) field Poll had their combined strenth at 17%.

In the LA times poll, Arnold was stuck at 22%, while the Field poll had him at 21%."

"You are also making the assumption that all of Simon's supporters will go for Tom."

Yes I am, nearly all of the Simon supporters were people who were very conservative. They'll all go for McClintock - I guarantee you.

[JohnnyZ]

McClintock needs smarter supporters. Ones that don't call Californians stupid!!

It's true though, that very large percent of Cali's population has a very small % of its IQ. Everyone knows it.

A politician running around saying that wouldn't be smart, but I thought we were interested in the truth on this board?

[Dog Gone]

I talked to my very conservative parents in Northern California about an hour ago. They don't agree with Arnold on the social issues, but they also think that McClintock is too conservative to win in California in this election.

I don't know who they are going to vote for, and I'm not sure they've made up their minds anyway. But I think they may be typical of many California Republicans who are inclined to vote for the candidate they believe has the best chance to win.

[Pubbie]

Good story, and besides McClintock can probably win with only 25%.

Right now, after the Simon exit, I would bet that Tom is in the high teens.

[McGavin999]

Well then, if you're sure, all I can say is congratulations. Of course AS hasn't really started campaigning yet, the ads will start rolling out after Labor Day. So will the TV appearances, etc. We'll just have to wait to see what's going to happen.

Hmmmm, I seem to remember saying the same thing to the Alan Keyes supporters back in 2000. (Another man I thought was great, but unelectable)

[JohnnyZ]

Would you prefer if Bill Jones ran?

Yes. Or Tony Strickland or Rosario Marin. I don't know how personable Strickland is; I like his politics but I want Boxer GONE. So I need more info. I think Marin or Jones could do it; Jones was twice elected statewide, I think?

Issa has not only the recall baggage, leaving the race crying after Davis attacked him, but he's pro-Palestinian and not the best matchup vs. a Jewish senator, even though she's probably pro-Palestinian too!!! Tons of baggage, and my theory on beating Boxer is to get a candidate with NO baggage, who won't trip over himself, who'll pick a few popular issues to run on and smile to victory.

[tophat9000]

Kalifornia is populated by a huge amount of basically stupid people. The day when common sense and fairness ruled are long gone not only in Kalifornia but in America as well. Arnold is not perfect, but as is becoming the norm in American politics, he is the lesser of two evils.

It works every time. Call someone stupid, and they won't like you very well.

McClintock needs smarter supporters. Ones that don't call Californians stupid!!

-------------------------------------------------

truth_seeker.... the guy calling "Californians stupid" is an Arnold supporters... not a McClintock supporters

[B Knotts]

Well, he was close to a lead, anyhow...

http://www.geocities.com/dave_enrich/ctd/3p.perot.html

Indeed, by the middle of the summer before the 1992 elections, Perot, who had technically not yet declared his candidacy, was in a statistical dead heat with Bush, and had a ten point lead over Clinton. Polls and pundits predicted Perot's presidency. One group projected that by election day between 43 and 51 percent of voters would support Perot, and that he would "easily win." APSA president Lowi called Perot's support "unprecedented."

[McGavin999]

I'm looking at this whole thing from the point of a business deal. AS has the connections, the charisma, the political backing, and the money.

[McGavin999]

Close only counts in horseshoes.

[Pubbie]

"Of course AS hasn't really started campaigning yet, the ads will start rolling out after Labor Day."

And neither has the terrible trio of Bob Mulholand, Art Torres, and Gary South.

They may not attack Arnold directly - they'll probably just release all sorts of juicy tales and photos of Arnold's infidelity to the tabloids and local papers.

But when Davis goes on the attack, Arnold's support will drop with conservatives, and those votes will go to McClintock.

As I have said, Arnold has already peaked.

[B Knotts]

The guy calling Californians stupid was a Schwarzenegger supporter.

[McGavin999]

They may not attack Arnold directly - they'll probably just release all sorts of juicy tales and photos of Arnold's infidelity to the tabloids and local papers.

So what? It's California. Besides, even the conservatives remember that they were suckered by the dems into tossing aside a probable winner for Simon. Most are not going to fall for that again. Most conservatives don't like being made fools of by democrat operatives. Some will of course, but I don't think there will be too many that will be that dumb.

[B Knotts]

As Roscoe pointed out in another message, Perot did lead in at least one poll. So there. :-þ

[Pubbie]

I like Bill Jones over Marin because he has higher name ID and knows how to win statewide.

Only problem is that he's a bit dull - but I'll take slow, steady, and consistent over a flash in the pan (Politically) like Arnold.

[kellynla]

Two quick points. Mac doesn't need the legislature to rescind the triple car tax, void the electrical contracts(the contracts are null& void because the individual who represented the Dimwit Davis and CA received over $200K from Edison hense conflict of interest) or initiate reform of the workman's comp. As far as the budget goes, the governor in CA has the Line Item Veto. And Mac has already made it clear that if the Dimwits in the legislature don't get it together Mac will take it to the people. No one in Sacramento is "untouchable!" We recalled a governor we can certainly recall a state senator or assemblyman! VOTE4MCCLIINTOCK or pay the con$equence$! click here http://www.tommcclintock.com to learn more!

PS: re: Boxer. We have candidates in the bullpen to KNOCKOUT BOXER! That's DC. McClintock is a Sacramento man.
For Boxer we have Chris Cox, Darrell Issa and a few others to KNOCKOUT BOXER!

[Pubbie]

"Besides, even the conservatives remember that they were suckered by the dems into tossing aside a probable winner for Simon. Most are not going to fall for that again."

If Arnold were running as a Democrat or an Independent, his sexual past wouldn't hurt him a bit in California.

But he's running as a Republican and he needs SOME support from conservative California Republicans, or else he can't win.

His infidelity is going to kill him with most Republican voters.

Those Republican Arnold supporters will defect to McClintock if McClintock is close to Arnold in the polls.

[Guyin4Os]

I asked: Does the Orthodox Church really believe that a pious idolater may possibly be saved, even though he rejects faith in Christ? If so, this is a clear violation of the scriptures.

You replied: I suppose my reply is that we don't know.

What can I say? The scripture is clear on the answer. I'm sorry your church cannot be.

[McGavin999]

Those conservatives who don't know that Arnold was an actor and probably had some skeletons in his closet haven't been paying attention for the past couple of years. Remember, just about everything has been used already (remember the Enquirer story a few years back when the dems thought AS would run for office?)

I think they've shot their wad and anything they come out with now is going to be rumor and gossip. Most republicans are too smart to fall for that, and most are aware that the dems are filthy, dirty fighters. I don't think it's going to bother them as much as you think.

It's not about social issues, it's about saving their state, saving their jobs, and saving their businesses.

[McGavin999]

I guess that's why we're calling him President Perot, hmmmm?