Posted on 08/24/2003 12:14:53 PM PDT by anymouse
In two days Congress will receive a major report on the shuttle disaster that will spark a funding battle with the potential to make or break the agency's human spaceflight programs.
The 250-page report, to be released Tuesday by the Columbia Accident Investigation Board, will do more than outline why one of NASA's small fleet of manned shuttles broke apart over Texas on Feb. 1.
The board's 13 members, headed by retired Navy Adm. Harold Gehman, will spell out what needs to be done to make the shuttle program safer.
And even though Gehman has said the report will not address the shuttle's long-term future, the impact of its recommendations will force Congress into making tough funding decisions that it has so far avoided.
"I think the report is going to be very honest and specific about the safety issues at NASA, and I welcome that," said Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, who sits on the two Senate panels that determine NASA's direction and spending levels. "I am committed to two priorities: space exploration and safe space exploration."
Of NASA's $15.5 billion annual budget, roughly 40 percent goes to human spaceflight programs, which are run from Houston's Johnson Space Center.
Hutchison is among a handful of gung-ho shuttle enthusiasts on Capitol Hill. She has helped fend off attacks on the shuttle's budget, protecting it from cuts sought by lawmakers critical of the program's mismanagement and cost overruns.
Agency's path unclear
But bringing the space shuttle program forward, by prying tens of billions of dollars in new spending from a federal budget already running huge annual deficits, will require strong participation from the White House and a political strategy that outmaneuvers fiscal conservatives who favor tax cuts over spending increases.
"It's still very unclear how they're going to move forward," said David Goldston, chief of staff of the House Science Committee, which next year will rewrite the laws guiding NASA's policies.
"Obviously, this stuff is going to take more money in all sorts of ways," he said of the shuttle program. "This is a pivotal time. The path set now will determine the direction of the agency."
Decisions about restructuring the shuttle program will be among the most difficult because they will center on whether safety has been taken seriously enough by NASA and its two main contractors, Boeing and Lockheed Martin. Those contractors jointly manage all outsourcing of shuttle-related work.
NASA has been hotly criticized for giving its contractors financial incentives to keep down costs, potentially putting on-time launches ahead of safety considerations. But Gehman has sent mixed signals on how the commission's report will handle the matter, observers said.
That is in large part because the Columbia accident investigation did not produce a so-called smoking gun. Initial tests have shown the accident was caused by insulating foam that fell off the shuttle's external fuel tank at launch. It struck the heat absorbing tile on the skin of the orbiter, creating a hole in the left wing that allowed in searing gases as the shuttle re-entered the atmosphere.
Investigators have indicated that NASA missteps occurred while the shuttle was in orbit. Its complex and multilayered management failed to heed concerns from engineers about the potential damage done to the heat-absorbing tiles.
Exploring `culture'
The Gehman commission report is expected to address the bureaucratic "culture" at NASA. Whether the report will be specific enough for Congress to take action remains to be seen.
"Throwing the word `culture' around is a recipe for letting everyone off the hook because no one knows what it means," said Goldston. "Clearly this is an agency that needs change. If the discussion is about some indefinable notion called `culture,' that's not going to get us very far."
A working outline of the board's report also indicated the document will address pressures on the space agency to economize and turn over responsibilities to its primary shuttle contractor. It will reveal lapses by NASA in the professional certification of some personnel involved in mission operations.
It will attempt to gauge shifting support in Congress, as well as the evolution of White House space policy, then list recommendations for NASA to follow.
The House Science Committee has been conducting its own investigation of the Columbia accident. Sources there said that if lawmakers, including Rep. Nick Lampson, whose district contains Johnson Space Center, are unhappy with Gehman's report or NASA's response to it, the committee will issue its own findings.
The House will use those findings to begin drafting new authorizing legislation that the space agency will have to follow.
Gehman is scheduled to appear before a joint House-Senate hearing Sept. 4.
His testimony will kick off a series of hearings in the House and at least one additional hearing in the Senate, during which NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe and other agency officials will be asked to respond to the Gehman commission's findings.
Meanwhile, several pro-shuttle lawmakers will be gunning to get at least another $50 million in emergency funding for the space agency this year to help pay for the investigation.
The money already has been approved by the Senate. But House conservatives rejected the administration's request for that money before adjourning for their August recess.
Sources said they believe the money will be approved shortly after Congress returns to work in early September.
The larger questions over how NASA will pay for the Gehman commission's expensive recommended safety upgrades for the shuttle, including a new escape system and high-tech satellite monitoring from takeoff to landing, will be harder to answer.
Funding fight
"It's a moving target," said Brian Chase, a NASA expert and head of the National Space Society. He said those close to the NASA budget process believe the results of the Gehman commission could require Congress to give the agency another $200 million before the year is over.
But the biggest funding battle is expected to play out early next year, once President Bush has sent his 2005 budget proposal to Capitol Hill.
Many in the NASA community believe the Gehman commission report will provide justification for a major investment in the shuttle program. They hope the harsh reality spelled out in the report encourages Bush to increase the agency's $15.5 billion annual budget to somewhere closer to $20 billion.
Whether that will be possible depends entirely on the president, congressional aides said. Even though NASA supporters are among Washington's most powerful lawmakers -- including House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land -- the general mood in Congress is to curb federal spending.
Fiscal conservatives are in no mood to favor NASA over other agencies also in need of more funding, such as Veterans Affairs.
Once the media spectacle around the Gehman commission subsides in early September, House Science Committee Chairman Sherwood Boehlert, R-N.Y., will begin weekly hearings on NASA's future -- the results of which will not be known for some time.
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