If we get the current batch of "I'd rather have McClintock, but Arnold is our only chance" voters to actually vote their preference, Arnold can have the Dem crossover votes (drawn from Bustamante, I might add). McClintock will then have a strong enough showing to win. You folks keep forgetting that we have a very strong campaign theme to run on. Namely, that a vote for Bustamante is a vote for all the things that made the recall necessary in the first place. Unlike McClintock, Arnold is not articulating specifics at this point. Mind you, I think that Arnold is a decent guy, a man of good will, and someone who can be reasoned with (all of which immediately makes him superior to any California Democrat I'm aware of). However, McClintock knows California politics intimately, and has articulated both the problems and a number of proposed solutions. All Arnold has given us so far is essentially "things suck, and when I get in there, I'll fix them."
So right now we have a choice of a charismatic actor who's dabbled in some aspects of politics, socially liberal, MAYBE fiscally conservative, married into one of the most die-hard Democrat families in history, who hasn't given specific solutions to anything, vs. a social and fiscal conservative with political seasoning, who well before the recall was pointing out the problems and working to take action to solve them, and who has been rising significantly in the polls in recent days as he gets more media exposure. And we're supposed to throw in the towel on the latter as soon as the opening bell sounds? How ridiculous.