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Firstly, it will take many years and billions of dollars before Iraq can begin to ship oil in the quantities that could affect world price. Meanwhile, the continuing fighting against our military and the sabotage of oil producing equipment cancels any type of foreign investment that is needed. Iraq does not have, nor will it for many years, an effective justice system under which long-term oil contracts can be arbitrated. Companies would be insane to invest there. Practically speaking, there is as much chance that Iraq will dissolve into civil war as there is it becoming an American friendly democracy.

So the oil companies want to lose the war? I thought they wanted to win the war. Which is it?

Secondly, it is more than likely that an independent Iraq would re-join OPEC.

How do you know this?

I thought they wanted to win the war. Which is it?

I really don’t think Exxon, Mobil or Shell care a wit about winning or loosing the war. In the end OPEC will continue to artificially inflate the world price of crude oil and that sits perfectly fine with them. Their interest is in securing US government backed contracts for equipment, drilling, exploration and pipelines in Iraq. No company (of any type) would be willing to invest with a new Iraq government (unless there are lots of US soldiers there to back up its authority) but they are thrilled to receive US government contracts for rebuilding Iraq’s oil infrastructure. That is their interest in this war. That is also why we do not want Russia “in on the deal” because their oil companies also want a piece of this pie.

” How do you know this?”

Because Iraq used to be a member of OPEC. They were kicked out after their invasion of Kuwait. Iraq is an Arab country and it is an Islamic nation. Despite any reforms we might attempt at democracy, those 2 facts will remain. The Islamic/Arab world would not allow a non-OPEC producer in their neighborhood. There is simply too much money at stake to ever allow that to happen. If independent, and if stable and if their oil infrastructure is updated (all very big ifs), Iraq will join OPEC