Gov. Gray Davis received a surprising boost Friday when a new statewide poll showed California voters nearly evenly divided on whether to remove him from office.
The results suggest the governor might have benefited from his Tuesday night speech acknowledging his failings, defending his record and portraying the recall as "right-wing power grab."
His stepped-up public campaigning also might be swinging voter opinion toward him for the first time in the recall campaign.
Moreover, the survey results suggest the luster might have quickly come off the highly publicized candidacy of actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the leading Republican seeking to replace Davis if he is unseated.
The numbers were released as Republicans tried to encourage some of their candidates to drop out and unify behind Schwarzenegger.
In sharp contrast to two prior surveys, the new Los Angeles Times poll shows that 50 percent of likely voters support the recall, while 45 percent oppose it.
The 5-point margin is much better news for Davis than the earlier Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute of California survey, which showed the recall ahead by more than 20 points.
"This is intriguing," said Henry Brady, director of UC Berkeley's Survey Research Center. "I think it's telling us that it's not over yet."
The Los Angeles Times survey of 801 likely voters was taken from Aug. 16 though Thursday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Unlike the previous two polls, it covers the time period of Davis' speech. In contrast, Brady noted, the prior two polls "were taken when the feeding frenzy regarding Arnold Schwarzenegger was greatest."
Davis backers were pleased by the results, while the actor's campaign tried to downplay the poll.
"It puts the election in a whole different light," said Davis pollster and adviser Paul Maslin. "It's only a first step but we're starting to turn the momentum. Once that happens, we have a tremendous chance to beat this thing."
Schwarzenegger spokesman Sean Walsh noted that Davis' fellow party members have continued to signal they have strong reservations that the governor can beat the recall.
"I'm taking my cues from what the Democrats are doing," Walsh said. "Just look at all of the people jumping Gray Davis' sinking ship."
To be sure, comparison of polls from different survey organizations can produce skewed conclusions. Pollsters often use different assumptions about which voters are likely to turn out on Election Day.
In this unprecedented recall election, pollsters, like candidates, are struggling to figure out who will actually cast a ballot.
"If I were Gray Davis, I wouldn't be celebrating," Brady said. "But at least it looks like it might be a horse race."
At the same time, Republican nervousness about splitting the party vote prompted more pressure to narrow the field.
State Senate Minority Leader Jim Brulte, R-Rancho Cucamonga, said he might ask one of the four top GOP candidates to drop out. In addition to Schwarzenegger, the others are former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth, businessman Bill Simon and state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks.
Simon said he felt no pressure to drop out, but acknowledged that the field could narrow. "I'm always open to talking to people. I do think the field will winnow down as time goes on," Simon told CNN.
Meanwhile, his supporters accused the state Republican Party of jettisoning a joint appearance of all the major candidates at next month's party convention in Los Angeles in order to showcase Schwarzenegger.
Republican Chairman Duf Sundheim acknowledged that organizers were inclined to offer each of the major Republican candidates a solo appearance at the convention, rather than a joint forum.
"We want to focus on issues that unite us -- and we thought that their appearing together would highlight the differences," Sundheim said. "We want to do what's in the best interest of the party."
The Lincoln Club of Orange County, which includes some of the state's most prolific Republican donors, endorsed Schwarzenegger on Friday and called on the other Republican candidates to abandon the race.
Any of the candidates who drop out of the race will remain listed on the two-part ballot.
What's changed? I doubt this poll.
Beware of anything printed in the LA Times.
If there is no ecall, Davis is there to screw it up even more and those idiots will be BEGGING for help!
If Davis is out and Bustamante (Spanish for Fireplug) wins, He'll have years to screw it up even further and those idiots will be BEGGING for help!
If Arnold wins, Help will be seen as riding into town wih a white hat and a "Kennedy" wife.
If Arnold falls on his face and McClintock gets in, he'l fix the problems but it will be sooooooo much harder and soooooo much more cantankerous.
I really see no downside to Republicans in this race.