People that are this dumb or care that little about anything conservative or look to the federal government to help them that much, are not going to be persuaded into voting Republican because of even worse economic ideas (like trade protectionism). It's all luck (depending on where the economy is in it's cycle) with these people.
That being said, Bush will win easily in 2004.
He didn't win all that easily in 2000 ---- Gore came awfully close. With millions of jobs leaving the country and Bush seen toasting his Chinese friends new success --- I think there could be some problems.