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To: Common Tator
You look grand for a guy as old as you must be. Genes are a splendid thing. Of course, I am sure your clean living helps too. Your article is a bit confusing frankly. My view is that if Simon and McClintock take 25% of the vote, than Bustamante will be elected governor going away. But I am fairly confident that putting aside Uberroth (sp), that at the end, if necessary, between Arnold, Simon (that pathetic creature), and McClintock, two of the three, maybe four, will drop out.
36 posted on 08/20/2003 10:36:14 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie
Genes are a splendid thing. Of course, I am sure your clean living helps too

Well my Great Great great uncle Ben was born in 1805 and died in 1918. He taught my father how to hunt and live off the land when Uncle Ben was 107 years old. On his 110th birthday the local paper interivewd Ben. They of course asked to what he attributed his long life. He was quoted as saying,"Less Sodie pop and more Whiskey".

My wife passed away last winter, and my nephew understood my concern for longevity. He urged me to visit all the family graves from the early 1800s on. The average life span for scores of my family turned out to be 92 years and 8 months. I have quite a few years left.

I subscribe to the Strom Thurman school of recreational activities.

This actually happened to me. In retrospect it is very flattering. Night before last on my eveing walk a young lady and her boy friend stopped me. She demanded to know if I was her father. In an effort to give her a truthful answer I could only think to ask... who is your mother?

As far as my far out take on California is concerned I think Bustamante will likely win it. In federal elections it is always the same ... Democrats vote ... Democrats always vote. Republicans sometimes do and sometimes don't. I don't think Arnie can win if the turn out numbers are 45D ,15I, and 40R. We will have to see if the turn out numbers change.

I also think that the hard core support for Simple Simon and McClintock may very well be 12 to 15 percent. I don't think Democrats will vote for Arnie. If those two things are true then Arnie can't win. What I was saying is that if Simon and McClintock drop out, their hard core voters may not vote at all. When the far right does not have a candidate they tend not to vote. Here in my congressioanl district Geo Vonovich tried to run a pro abortion moderate Republican woman a few years ago. The hard right sat on their hands on election day. She got beat far worse than the more conseravtive candidate did 2 years earlier. The 10 or 12 percent that is far right will not vote for arnie. If Simon and mcClintock are way down or with draw that 10 or 12 percent may not vote at all.

Indenpendents are not ideological. Half vote for people they like (the man not party) or the other half for someone who will do something for them. Arnie is not offering anyone anything. He may very well only get a 50 percent turnout of the indpendents. If the party gets the far right candidates to drop out so their their loyal follwers will vote for arnie, those followers MAY NOT VOTE AT ALL. The assumption is that if Simon is not in the race then his voters will vote for arnie. I don't think that is true. I think they won't go vote at all. If the far right does not have a candidate to vote for... that is. if Simon and McClintock drop out, many of their followers may not vote. If 12 percent of the voteres from the right do not vote, then Davis does not get recalled. If the democrats vote for Bustamante, and the hard base for Simon does not vote and a few of the mcClintock base do not vote, then the percentages are 53 percent of the actual voters would be Democrats and 47 percent would be Independents and Republicans. If the Democrats all do as they likely will, vote against recall and then for Bustamante, it is possible Davis may not be recalled.

That was my point.

41 posted on 08/21/2003 12:01:33 AM PDT by Common Tator
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