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In the first quarter of 2002, GDP grew at a rate of 5.0%, followed by similarly impressive 4.0% growth in the third quarter of 2002. We see how much of an impact that made toward the overall vigor of the economy.

There are always reasons for optimism during a cyclical bull phase of any secular bear market. Here's a reason for pessimism:

Secular Bear Markets			Secular Bull Markets
Period	Duration	Annual Real Return	Period	Duration	Annual Real Return
1802-1815	13	+2.8%	1815-1835	20	+9.6%
1835-1843	8	-1.1%	1843-1853	10	+12.5%
1853-1861	8	-2.8%	1861-1881	20	+11.5%
1881-1896	15	+3.7%	1896-1906	10	+11.5%
1906-1921	15	-1.9%	1921-1929	8	+24.8%
1929-1949	20	+1.2%	1949-1966	17	+14.1%
1966-1982	16	-1.5%	1982-2000	18	+14.8%
Overall	95	+0.3%	Overall	103	+13.2%

John

First you know me and I know you so please understand this is not a personal attack. Economists generally recognize that the recession ended in Nov 2001. However since then there has been a major decrease in employment and the observation has been made that many of these jobs will not be returning to the USA.

In order to be certain that the Democrats can not bring this issue up it is necessary for Republicans to address the underlying structuralproblems in the economy. Bush tax cuts have helped and seriously led yto teh end of the recession and what recoveryy we have experienced but he needs to do more

In no particular order of importance.

1. Get rid of government subsidies for offshore investment of US companies. OPIC is the first such program which should go but support of World Bank programs that subsidize the outflow of Capital would be another.

2. Use tariffs on those nations which are engaged in unfair trade practices such as currency manipulation (China and India for example), those nations which refuse to open their markets to US products (China for example with its 50% tariffs on US consumer goods and non tariff barriers), those nations that subsidize competition to American Industry (airbus for example) and those nations which have slave conditions for their workers.

3. Use tariffs and other means to prevent the relocation of jobs offshore that are essential to the national defense. If necessary take control of the company seeking to export vital technology or industry by means of eminent domain (No I do not like this last option and I will only defend its use as an absolute last resort like say in the case of rare earth magnets essential to smart bomb technology).

4. An immediate end to guest worker programs. If people wish to come to the USA to work and make a life let them immigrate according to the rules.

5 Provide economic development zones where the corporate income tax is zero for operations within these zones. In order to operate in this zone a company must agree to only purchase American components if available and employ only American citizens or legal immigrants in these operations. These economic development zones shall be eventually be expanded to include every bit of every state once the benefits are shown I would like them to be totally implemented immediately but I realize4 that may be overreaching.

6. Scale back unnecessary regulation including the tort system. Institute a cap on punitive damages, limits on class action suits, and limits on liability to the actual percentage of liability with no plaintiff able to collect if said plaintiff was involved in the commission of a felony at the time of the alleged tort or was more than 49% negligent in the alleged tort. Note that the loser in a frivolous lawsuit shall pay the attorney fees of the winner. There are many other regulatory structures that also need to be included that need to be included such as repealing the Family leave mandate, getting rid of OSHA etc.

7. Increase the domestic content in purchases by the Department of defense and give absolute preference in non-domestic content to proven allies of the USA over say the French or Germans. The only reason any content for DOD purchase may come from non US allies is that content is not available elsewhere and is essential.

8. Do not allow expense involved in moving operations overseas to be included in business expenses under the IRS code.

9. Prosecute for perjury anyone who has made a false statement in order to employ an H1B or L1 visa worker. I will be lenient on the actual perjurer if he/she was ordered to make this false statement and he/she provides testimony to aid in the conviction of the person ordering the perjury. Just because a person is a CEO does not give them a pass on criminal behavior.

10. Prosecute anyone who orders the transfer of vital defense technology or funds a R&D project that could be of use to our military overseas except to strong allies of the USA. Make the necessary enhancements to our espionage laws so that continued support or funding of any R&D in a nation whose government has threatened the USA is guilty of espionage. The UK and Australia come to mind as meeting these criteria for being eligible for transfer of technology first. There will be other nations and a gradation of what can be transferred to which specific nation. Under no circumstances may technology be transferred to any nation whose government has threatened the USA within five years without a complete change of government or specific exemption from Congress and the administration.

11. Deport all illegal aliens immediately and take measures that prevent the entry of any more illegal aliens. Fine all companies knowingly employing illegal aliens Criminal sanctions should be imposed on anyone helping an illegal alien stay in the USA in violation of our laws.

12. Decrease the punishing levels of taxation on companies and eliminate the double taxation on corporate dividends. See effects of item 5 for how minimal this will be if item 5 covers the entire USA. Eliminate all IRS provisions that inhibit free use of independent contractors by businesses for example section 1706.

13. Eliminate the minimum wage so that the worker can be paid based on productivity. Overtime compensation will remain the same but instead of 150% of the "wage" the worker would receive 150% of the production pay. If one through 13 are enacted # 14 becomes an irrelevancy as no one will be working for that low a wage.

Now every point in this program is Conservative and based upon Consevative priciples including the works of Adam Smith, the views of Alexander Hamilton, The US Constitution and the experience of over two hundred years of American History.

Thanks for posting Bob and congratulations as always to an excellent essay to JH2.

There are always people who don't want to take "yes" for an answer, who carry their own rain cloud with them and for whom the end is always near. I would hate to live day after day with that much pessimism.

Be of good cheer. We are winning, they are losing and we will prevail.